Good morning,
Gosh, the press is all over the show. I want to get excited about Obama meeting Mitt. The budget is huge issue for the US and despite Obama winning a second term, a joint effort is needed to pass a number of bills, helping America reduce its deficit.
The the next story I read is BP, which is now banned from new US contracts. I know they are British, so my view many will question as slightly bias, however, BP is one of the leaders in its field. Yes, they have made some mistakes, but the development in drilling and exploration techniques would not be were it is today without this industry leader.
My fear is, that the US see growth through protectionism. Looking after your own is all well and good, but going back over history, it tends to make a samll number wealth, reduces R&D and stops much needed foreign investment. As mentioned yesterday, France is going down that route, and it is not advised.
Argentinian debt has also come up recently. What they dont realise is, although defaulting would solve a number of problems, as an investor, I would not touch their debt from here on. Even if yields were 20%, it doesnt matter if I dont see my principle back. Therefore, it makes it terribly difficult to raise funds in the overseas market, setting their growth back at least 10 years. I suggest playing by the rules.
Markets overnight saw Europe weaker throughout the session barr the last hour, where a short rally pushed many of the indices back into positive territory. The Euro sold off sharply but has since bounced making up those loses, now trading at 1.2950. Sectors in Europe look like this:
FTSE +0.1% avg volume; O/P: tech, telco U/P: basic materials, utilities
CAC +0.4% low volume; O/P: utilities, Oil&gas U/P: telco, tech
DAX +0.2% low volume; O/P: basic materials, cons.goods U/P: utilities, financial
IBEX -0.3% v.good volume; O/P: cons.services, tech U/P: utilities, telco
Sectors tell us very little. I like the volume pick up in Spain, where defensive names underperform leading to the idea that inflows are finally coming. Albeit at hugely discounted rates.
In the UK, VOD LN just paid its dividend and yet the telco sector remains strong.
In the US, markets opened on the lows and trended firmer, and on good volume.
S&P +0.8% avg volume; O/P: cons.services, oil & gas U/P: utilities, basic mats
Oil and Gas is finally outperforming over financials and tech, partly due to the Aplle rally running out of steam. In the tech space, I like innovative companies and for me, Apple has lost that. Short it at your peril, but at these levels, Microsoft looks more interesting. The next to fall from grace is Samsung, where the good times are over... whats next for them, they make a 20 inch phone?
Markets.
Asia is rallying on the back of indices closing at day lows and the rebound in currencies such as US$EUR. Expect markets to see some rotation today and over the next fortnight as investors cover shorts and optimism that the US budget will get passed first time, which I think it will.
We should see basic materials and oil&gas run on US$ hedge and growth sentiment improving.
Time to buy Petrochina(857), where I plan to put the Stoddart retirement fund, should I find an odd lot broker that doesnt have a 5% spread.
Data.
15:00 UK nationwide house prices
16:00 Spain housing permits
16:55 German unemployment - major number!
18:00 EU confidence... big number but, nothing says confidence like increasing inventories
21:30 US consumption, jobless claims and GDP, expected 2.8%
Events.
16:00 EU votes on bank oversight
17:00 EU pact with Japan, Canada and Singpaore... island dispute and deals with Japan...risky
18:30 UK BoE financial stability report
20:30 OECD's Gurria speaks, 1st question, why lowering growth tgts?
23:0 US hearing on Basel pt 3
Bonds.
11:35 Japan 3 month auction
18:00 Italy 5 and 10 year auction, yields already sub 5%
02:00 US 7 year auction
Earnings.
Tiffany(US), Dixons(UK), Natl Bk of Greece(GR), Fraser Prop(SP), Choi Tai Fook(HK)
Stoddart
Wednesday, 28 November 2012
Tuesday, 27 November 2012
Morning note, data, events, bonds and earnings 28th November 2012
Good morning,
Hollande is priceless. EU leaders are currently meeting on a continuous basis, discussing austerity including reduced public spending and reducing tax cuts/breaks. Despite this, France's president Hollande, is now looking to nationalise assets of ArcelorMittel.
It been in the press so I wont go through it all, but the basics are, ArcelorMittel wants to sell/close 2 of its furnaces, which upon hearing this, the French president started a witch hunt, threatening to expel it from the country.
Hollande has since toned down these threats, in part due to the 20,000 people ArcelorMittal still employs, and has now decided that nationalisation of the 2 furnaces is an option.
Given his current policy is still heavy on spending, with little indications of how he is going to generate the revenue to cover this, buying a Steel business will certainly upset the rest of Europe.
Hollande's spending is erratic, matched only by US consumers on Black Firday. He continues to believe higher growth will support his spending today, cause a number of downgrades on the countries debt. Should he continue down this path, France will be looking further downgrades causing far worse problems than the current situation.
This man needs to be stopped, before one of the major pillars in the European Union becomes yet another victim of over spending, just to get the popularity vote.
Overnight saw European markets open at the highs, around +50bps on very strong volume early in the session. But they trended easier throughout the day, closing just off the lows around flat on the day.
FTSE +0.2% low volume; O/P: tech, industrial U/P: oil&gas, telco
CAC flat avg volume; O/P: tech, financial U/P: telco, utilities
DAX +0.6% avg volume; O/P: health, financial U/P: telco, cons.services
IBEX -0.1% v.strong volume; O/P: tech, health U/P: oil&gas, telco
Sectors highlight a rebound in the financial sector and a move into defensives once again. Oil and gas continues to remain weak, despite an easing US$ as investors remain nervous on the growth outlook over the next 2 years. My view is that the negativity on GDP is already priced in leaving oil&gas undervalued at these levels. With European policy starting to take effect, we should see bond yields fall, reducing demand for the US$. This should boost US exports, and demand for the commodities.
European bonds continued to firm overnight, with 10yr yields as follows, Spain -10bps at 7.50%, Italy -3bps at 4.71% and Greece -30bps at 15.90%. We should continue to see inflows as investors look to lock in the high yields vs German and France. At these levels, I would be looking to short the French 5yr against both Spain and Italy.
Currencies saw EUR US$ give back some of its early gains, selling down to 1.2940 level currently. The 1.30 level is a major resistance level, which without improving industrial output, its hard to see it breaking in the near term. the US$ JPY continues to see the JPY remain weak at 82.20, which should help support the Nikkei, where the weaker yen aids exportors.
Data out of Europe saw German import price index fall -0.6% vs expected -0.3%.
In the UK, government spending came in slightly higher in the 3rd quarter at +0.6% vs estimates +0.4%, and there was a strong pick up in exports at +1.7% vs estimates 1.1%.
In Spain, there was the budget announcement, which saw October come in at -43.37b Euro, vs August -46.11b..... this should reduce some of the pressure on Spain from EU members German and France.
In the US, equity markets traded sideways for most of the session, before selling off in the last 2hours closing at day lows. Volumes remained quite strong despite the firming US$. UST's also firmed 3bps at 1.64% on the 10yr.
S&P -0.5% avg volume; O/P: utilities, cons.goods U/P: oil & gas, financial
The sector map shows further profit taking in financials, which is due to continue given the strong performance over the last 6 months. As Europe seems to be improving policy wise, we should see global funds take a more balanced weighting in this sector.
Consumer goods continue to outperform on the back of Black Friday. I'm not a fan of buying these names after the event but clearly, investors are excited by the sales numbers. I want to see how the consumer data over the next few months, this should tell us if personal credit markets are finally improving.
Data in the US was strong last night, but markets didnt react. Durable goods came in at flat, vs expectations of -0.7% in October. Ex transportation saw it beat estimates by 2%, estimates -0.5% vs actual +1.5%.
The CaseShiller home prices also came in slightly firmer for September at 146.22k vs August 145.87k. This number is struggling, in part due to the lower end of the market failing to find buyers due tight credit markets and consumers also suffering from weaker credit scores.
The Richmond fed manufacturing was also strong, coming in at 9 vs estimates -9. A strong pick up in Shipments, New orders and rising inventory levels, leaves me optimistic that the US will surprise to the upside with its improving GDP.
Markets. Sorry for the delay in this note, most markets are now in fact open. Japan opens at the lows and trends firmer, as the JPY continues to weaken. Australia remains weak, as commodities and oils still are still struggling to see inflows. Despite huge inventories in basic materials, the negativity on the sector is overdone, as is the outlook for GDP growth. Analysts are being way too conservative given the liquidity that is in the system, therefore I continue to think this sector is oversold, and look cheap.
Equity markets should see some degree of profit taking given the recent run. HK and China property look extremely rich at these levels, as are IPP.
I continue to like oil, oil and steel at these levels, as China will continue to support construction spending.
Markets trend easier in the first hour, then see us drift sideways.
Data.10:00 Philippines GDP
15:30 Thailand interest rates
16:00 Spain retail sales
17:00 Eurozone money supply
21:00 German CPI
20:00 US MBA mortgage apps
23:00 US new home sales
China leading index
Events.18:30 EU Almunia unveils rulings on Spanish banks
19:00 EU growth survey
22:00 Italy's Monti meets China's Jia
Bonds.12:00 Malaysia 2,5,7 month auction
18:00 Italy 6 month auction
18:30 German 5 year auction
02:00 US 5 year auction
Earnings.Express(US), ANN(US), American Eagle outfitters(US), Guess(US), Orco(FP), Untied Utilities(GB), Thomas Cook(UK), Alpha bank(GR), Eurobank Ergasias(GR), Skyworth(HK), Far East cons(HK), Yue Yuen(HK), China gas(HK), Luk Fook(HK), Bosideng(HK), Citic(CH), IJM(MK), Ukrnafta Oil(RU)
Stoddart
Hollande is priceless. EU leaders are currently meeting on a continuous basis, discussing austerity including reduced public spending and reducing tax cuts/breaks. Despite this, France's president Hollande, is now looking to nationalise assets of ArcelorMittel.
It been in the press so I wont go through it all, but the basics are, ArcelorMittel wants to sell/close 2 of its furnaces, which upon hearing this, the French president started a witch hunt, threatening to expel it from the country.
Hollande has since toned down these threats, in part due to the 20,000 people ArcelorMittal still employs, and has now decided that nationalisation of the 2 furnaces is an option.
Given his current policy is still heavy on spending, with little indications of how he is going to generate the revenue to cover this, buying a Steel business will certainly upset the rest of Europe.
Hollande's spending is erratic, matched only by US consumers on Black Firday. He continues to believe higher growth will support his spending today, cause a number of downgrades on the countries debt. Should he continue down this path, France will be looking further downgrades causing far worse problems than the current situation.
This man needs to be stopped, before one of the major pillars in the European Union becomes yet another victim of over spending, just to get the popularity vote.
Overnight saw European markets open at the highs, around +50bps on very strong volume early in the session. But they trended easier throughout the day, closing just off the lows around flat on the day.
FTSE +0.2% low volume; O/P: tech, industrial U/P: oil&gas, telco
CAC flat avg volume; O/P: tech, financial U/P: telco, utilities
DAX +0.6% avg volume; O/P: health, financial U/P: telco, cons.services
IBEX -0.1% v.strong volume; O/P: tech, health U/P: oil&gas, telco
Sectors highlight a rebound in the financial sector and a move into defensives once again. Oil and gas continues to remain weak, despite an easing US$ as investors remain nervous on the growth outlook over the next 2 years. My view is that the negativity on GDP is already priced in leaving oil&gas undervalued at these levels. With European policy starting to take effect, we should see bond yields fall, reducing demand for the US$. This should boost US exports, and demand for the commodities.
European bonds continued to firm overnight, with 10yr yields as follows, Spain -10bps at 7.50%, Italy -3bps at 4.71% and Greece -30bps at 15.90%. We should continue to see inflows as investors look to lock in the high yields vs German and France. At these levels, I would be looking to short the French 5yr against both Spain and Italy.
Currencies saw EUR US$ give back some of its early gains, selling down to 1.2940 level currently. The 1.30 level is a major resistance level, which without improving industrial output, its hard to see it breaking in the near term. the US$ JPY continues to see the JPY remain weak at 82.20, which should help support the Nikkei, where the weaker yen aids exportors.
Data out of Europe saw German import price index fall -0.6% vs expected -0.3%.
In the UK, government spending came in slightly higher in the 3rd quarter at +0.6% vs estimates +0.4%, and there was a strong pick up in exports at +1.7% vs estimates 1.1%.
In Spain, there was the budget announcement, which saw October come in at -43.37b Euro, vs August -46.11b..... this should reduce some of the pressure on Spain from EU members German and France.
In the US, equity markets traded sideways for most of the session, before selling off in the last 2hours closing at day lows. Volumes remained quite strong despite the firming US$. UST's also firmed 3bps at 1.64% on the 10yr.
S&P -0.5% avg volume; O/P: utilities, cons.goods U/P: oil & gas, financial
The sector map shows further profit taking in financials, which is due to continue given the strong performance over the last 6 months. As Europe seems to be improving policy wise, we should see global funds take a more balanced weighting in this sector.
Consumer goods continue to outperform on the back of Black Friday. I'm not a fan of buying these names after the event but clearly, investors are excited by the sales numbers. I want to see how the consumer data over the next few months, this should tell us if personal credit markets are finally improving.
Data in the US was strong last night, but markets didnt react. Durable goods came in at flat, vs expectations of -0.7% in October. Ex transportation saw it beat estimates by 2%, estimates -0.5% vs actual +1.5%.
The CaseShiller home prices also came in slightly firmer for September at 146.22k vs August 145.87k. This number is struggling, in part due to the lower end of the market failing to find buyers due tight credit markets and consumers also suffering from weaker credit scores.
The Richmond fed manufacturing was also strong, coming in at 9 vs estimates -9. A strong pick up in Shipments, New orders and rising inventory levels, leaves me optimistic that the US will surprise to the upside with its improving GDP.
Markets. Sorry for the delay in this note, most markets are now in fact open. Japan opens at the lows and trends firmer, as the JPY continues to weaken. Australia remains weak, as commodities and oils still are still struggling to see inflows. Despite huge inventories in basic materials, the negativity on the sector is overdone, as is the outlook for GDP growth. Analysts are being way too conservative given the liquidity that is in the system, therefore I continue to think this sector is oversold, and look cheap.
Equity markets should see some degree of profit taking given the recent run. HK and China property look extremely rich at these levels, as are IPP.
I continue to like oil, oil and steel at these levels, as China will continue to support construction spending.
Markets trend easier in the first hour, then see us drift sideways.
Data.10:00 Philippines GDP
15:30 Thailand interest rates
16:00 Spain retail sales
17:00 Eurozone money supply
21:00 German CPI
20:00 US MBA mortgage apps
23:00 US new home sales
China leading index
Events.18:30 EU Almunia unveils rulings on Spanish banks
19:00 EU growth survey
22:00 Italy's Monti meets China's Jia
Bonds.12:00 Malaysia 2,5,7 month auction
18:00 Italy 6 month auction
18:30 German 5 year auction
02:00 US 5 year auction
Earnings.Express(US), ANN(US), American Eagle outfitters(US), Guess(US), Orco(FP), Untied Utilities(GB), Thomas Cook(UK), Alpha bank(GR), Eurobank Ergasias(GR), Skyworth(HK), Far East cons(HK), Yue Yuen(HK), China gas(HK), Luk Fook(HK), Bosideng(HK), Citic(CH), IJM(MK), Ukrnafta Oil(RU)
Stoddart
Monday, 26 November 2012
Morning note, data, events, bonds and earnings 27th November 2012
Good morning,
Despite offering my services, the Bank of England has chosen a Canadian, Mark Carney as the Governor. I can only assume there was a mix up of the surnames.
The BoE was rumored some time ago to be looking at an "outsider" to take the top spot, just like that of the England football team, many years before.
The Canadian was one of the options commentators had penciled for the position. Currently serving as Chairman on the G20 stability board, and having worked at Goldman, Canadian department of finance and Bank of Canada, he has been credited with protecting Canada against much of the 2008 crisis.
With a strong understanding of global finance and crisis management, this should be taken in a positive light by global markets, and his education at Oxford should also mean he has a number of allies on the benches within the house of Parliament. There will be some questioning about ties with Goldman, similar of that of Hank Paulson, how came under scrutiny in the financial crisis, that saw financial institutions get a number of favors, not shown to other industries.
Other stories overnight include Europe and its aim to assist Greece. There are talks of the ECB fund, which currently holds Greek debt, giving back profits made from holding its bonds. It certainly feel's like the Christmas spirit is starting to shine. Of course, the ECB declined to comment on possible plans. Finance ministers meet today to discuss Greece's funding issues, for the third time.
Preparation is underway in the US to start designing a budget, where investors are nervous that the Republican's could potential stonewall cuts in a number of their "friendly" sectors.
Markets overnight saw currencies remain stable, with the Euro still trading around 1.2970, and Jpy firming slightly at 82.10. Sterling remained unchanged on the BoE announcement, trading at 1.6025 and holding on to its strong rally last friday.
In the bond market, Spanish and Italian yields continue to fall, with 10yr yields at 5.58 and 4.74% respectively.
Equity markets, which finally feel like they have caught up with currency markets, started to flap a little over night, with volumes falling and markets trending easier.
FTSE -0.6% low volume; O/P: cons. goods, tech U/P: financial, health
CAC -0.8% v.low volume; O/P: health, basic material U/P: financial, industrial
DAX -0.2% v.low volume; O/P: cons.service, cons.good U/P: industrial, utilities
IBEX -0.4% low volume; O/P: cons.services, industrial U/P: tech, basic mat
Sectors here highlight some rotation, which after such a strong performance of financial's over the last 3 months, was expected. Its good to see investors looking at basic materials (finally), which should benefit from improved optimism on growth and reflect the weaker US$. Dont get me wrong, inventories are still high, but so were the sugar mountains in the UK/Europe many years ago. Basic materials still look oversold at these levels.
In the US, the hype over Black Friday is starting to feel like 8pm on boxing day, its done. Sales increased but partly due to increased stores from the major names like Walmart, however, it could show credit easing at a consumer level as credit card usage hits the roof in favor of new TV's, DVD players and other types of must have gadgets.
SPX -0.2% avg volume; O/P: utilities, tech U/P: telco, oil & gas
Sector performance looks quite defensive. A rebound in Apple helping support the tech sector, but telco's seeing outflows as investors look to move to a more neutral stance into year end. Like Christmas decorations, this seems to be happening earlier and earlier these days.
Data overnight saw both the Chicago fed and Dallas fed come in weaker than expected. Chicago activity came in at -0.56, whilst the Dallas manufacturing came in at -2.8, vs expected 2.5. New orders were actually strong MoM, with an increase of 0.4, and there was also an increase in inventories of +4.1. This however, was weighed down by a large fall in production and capacity utilisation.
Markets.Expect Asia to open relatively flat to slightly easier. Yesterdays sell down, which saw HK trend easier throughout the session, closing just off day lows, means much of the move overnight should be priced in. With currencies trading unchanged, this should see equity markets trend firmer through the session.
Would look to be buying coal, oil and steels. Selling banks, HK+CH property names. Auto's like DF(489) also looking toppy, be short with caution, there is a big squeeze going on.
HUGE data day, watch for volatility to increase in the currencies today.
Data.08:00 Australia house affordability
08:30 Australia balance of payments
09:00 Philippines trade balance
09:30 China industrial profits
11:00 Japan small business confidence
15:00 German import pirces
15:45 France consumer confidence
16:30 HK trade balance
17:00 Italy wages
17:30 UK government spending, trade balance, index of sevices
18:00 EU OECD economic outlook
21:30 US durable goods, cap goods
22:00 US Case-shiller
23:00 US Richmond Fed, consumer confidence
23:00 US house price index
Spain budget, Thailand trade balance
Events.16:00 US Fed's Fisher speaks in Germany
16:30 Italy Grilli, Ghizzoni, Cucchiani Speak in Milan
16:30 EU court ruling on ESM validity
18:00 OECD publishes economic outlook
19:30 US Fed's Lockhart speaks on financial stability
EU Ashton at EU-central Asia meeting
Bonds.11:00 Thailand 1,3,6 month auction
11:45 Japan 2yr auction
17:00 Netherlands 3yr auction
17:30 Spain 2.5,6 month auction
18:00 Italy 2,5,14 year auction
00:30 US 4 week auction
02:00 US 2yr auction
Earnings.ADT(US), PVH(US), Remy Cointreau(FP), Severn Trent(UK), Vienna Ins(AV), Britvic(UK), Raiffenisen Bank(AV), Skyworth(HK), Far East Cons(HK), Yue Yuen(HK), China Gas(HK), Luk Fook(HK), Bosideng(HK), Dynam Japan(JP), ITC (HK), Vitasoy(HK), Quam(HK), Focus Media(HK), Kernel(PW), Liberty Bank(RU)
Stoddart
Despite offering my services, the Bank of England has chosen a Canadian, Mark Carney as the Governor. I can only assume there was a mix up of the surnames.
The BoE was rumored some time ago to be looking at an "outsider" to take the top spot, just like that of the England football team, many years before.
The Canadian was one of the options commentators had penciled for the position. Currently serving as Chairman on the G20 stability board, and having worked at Goldman, Canadian department of finance and Bank of Canada, he has been credited with protecting Canada against much of the 2008 crisis.
With a strong understanding of global finance and crisis management, this should be taken in a positive light by global markets, and his education at Oxford should also mean he has a number of allies on the benches within the house of Parliament. There will be some questioning about ties with Goldman, similar of that of Hank Paulson, how came under scrutiny in the financial crisis, that saw financial institutions get a number of favors, not shown to other industries.
Other stories overnight include Europe and its aim to assist Greece. There are talks of the ECB fund, which currently holds Greek debt, giving back profits made from holding its bonds. It certainly feel's like the Christmas spirit is starting to shine. Of course, the ECB declined to comment on possible plans. Finance ministers meet today to discuss Greece's funding issues, for the third time.
Preparation is underway in the US to start designing a budget, where investors are nervous that the Republican's could potential stonewall cuts in a number of their "friendly" sectors.
Markets overnight saw currencies remain stable, with the Euro still trading around 1.2970, and Jpy firming slightly at 82.10. Sterling remained unchanged on the BoE announcement, trading at 1.6025 and holding on to its strong rally last friday.
In the bond market, Spanish and Italian yields continue to fall, with 10yr yields at 5.58 and 4.74% respectively.
Equity markets, which finally feel like they have caught up with currency markets, started to flap a little over night, with volumes falling and markets trending easier.
FTSE -0.6% low volume; O/P: cons. goods, tech U/P: financial, health
CAC -0.8% v.low volume; O/P: health, basic material U/P: financial, industrial
DAX -0.2% v.low volume; O/P: cons.service, cons.good U/P: industrial, utilities
IBEX -0.4% low volume; O/P: cons.services, industrial U/P: tech, basic mat
Sectors here highlight some rotation, which after such a strong performance of financial's over the last 3 months, was expected. Its good to see investors looking at basic materials (finally), which should benefit from improved optimism on growth and reflect the weaker US$. Dont get me wrong, inventories are still high, but so were the sugar mountains in the UK/Europe many years ago. Basic materials still look oversold at these levels.
In the US, the hype over Black Friday is starting to feel like 8pm on boxing day, its done. Sales increased but partly due to increased stores from the major names like Walmart, however, it could show credit easing at a consumer level as credit card usage hits the roof in favor of new TV's, DVD players and other types of must have gadgets.
SPX -0.2% avg volume; O/P: utilities, tech U/P: telco, oil & gas
Sector performance looks quite defensive. A rebound in Apple helping support the tech sector, but telco's seeing outflows as investors look to move to a more neutral stance into year end. Like Christmas decorations, this seems to be happening earlier and earlier these days.
Data overnight saw both the Chicago fed and Dallas fed come in weaker than expected. Chicago activity came in at -0.56, whilst the Dallas manufacturing came in at -2.8, vs expected 2.5. New orders were actually strong MoM, with an increase of 0.4, and there was also an increase in inventories of +4.1. This however, was weighed down by a large fall in production and capacity utilisation.
Markets.Expect Asia to open relatively flat to slightly easier. Yesterdays sell down, which saw HK trend easier throughout the session, closing just off day lows, means much of the move overnight should be priced in. With currencies trading unchanged, this should see equity markets trend firmer through the session.
Would look to be buying coal, oil and steels. Selling banks, HK+CH property names. Auto's like DF(489) also looking toppy, be short with caution, there is a big squeeze going on.
HUGE data day, watch for volatility to increase in the currencies today.
Data.08:00 Australia house affordability
08:30 Australia balance of payments
09:00 Philippines trade balance
09:30 China industrial profits
11:00 Japan small business confidence
15:00 German import pirces
15:45 France consumer confidence
16:30 HK trade balance
17:00 Italy wages
17:30 UK government spending, trade balance, index of sevices
18:00 EU OECD economic outlook
21:30 US durable goods, cap goods
22:00 US Case-shiller
23:00 US Richmond Fed, consumer confidence
23:00 US house price index
Spain budget, Thailand trade balance
Events.16:00 US Fed's Fisher speaks in Germany
16:30 Italy Grilli, Ghizzoni, Cucchiani Speak in Milan
16:30 EU court ruling on ESM validity
18:00 OECD publishes economic outlook
19:30 US Fed's Lockhart speaks on financial stability
EU Ashton at EU-central Asia meeting
Bonds.11:00 Thailand 1,3,6 month auction
11:45 Japan 2yr auction
17:00 Netherlands 3yr auction
17:30 Spain 2.5,6 month auction
18:00 Italy 2,5,14 year auction
00:30 US 4 week auction
02:00 US 2yr auction
Earnings.ADT(US), PVH(US), Remy Cointreau(FP), Severn Trent(UK), Vienna Ins(AV), Britvic(UK), Raiffenisen Bank(AV), Skyworth(HK), Far East Cons(HK), Yue Yuen(HK), China Gas(HK), Luk Fook(HK), Bosideng(HK), Dynam Japan(JP), ITC (HK), Vitasoy(HK), Quam(HK), Focus Media(HK), Kernel(PW), Liberty Bank(RU)
Stoddart
Sunday, 25 November 2012
Morning note, data, events, bonds, earnings 26th November 2012
Good morning,
The weekend press was highly concentrated towards the EU budget, and the failure to 1. agree to Van Rompuy's proposal 2. agree to an adjusted version.
Listening to the responses, it seems France's Hollande is unhappy with the size of the spending cuts. Not long in power, he is already under pressure due to a monetary policy which required higher levels of growth to boost employment and support public spending. The recent downgrade from Moody's highlights their lack of optimism, that this is achievable.
Germany's Merkel has also come under pressure, but it appears the German's have a greater willing than the French, to reduce the widening deficit. With their strong ties with France, it is now hoped that an agreement can be reached between the UK and France, where Germany can help broker the deal.
Sticky issues include; high public spending, retirement age and state pension demands, and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP).
The last one, is what seems to be getting a lot of attention. The CAP, was bought in after the second world war to encourage food production and subsides existing infrastructure. In my youth, it was designed to support prices, which were dramatically falling due to over production. Butter and Sugar mountains were created as the CAP purchased the over production from farmers, helping keep them in business.
Ow how things have changed. The mountains have long since gone, with rising demand and a shift of labor from the countryside to the cities in the early-mid 2000's, has now seen the globe struggle to increase supply.
The UK's argument, that a free market should determine supply and demand, thus reducing the cost of CAP on the budget, its understandable, but mental. Risking the supply chain of food stuffs could have a huge impact on inflation, especially after seeing the recent impact of adverse weather on production.
Both sides need to give a little, but to abandon or dramatically reduced funding to the CAP, is not the answer.
Markets.As the cost of hurricane Sandy come in, the US are instead choosing to look at the cap ex, that will now take place cross the eastern coast. Initial strong black friday sales also seem to have the market positive with names like Walmart and Target all strong on Friday.
As the Euro continues to strengthen, equity markets look set to remain strong. Inflows should consumer electronics and industrials run, both of which have been huge laggers over the last 12 months. This should also see further support to the container ships.
However, Europe is yet to resolve its budget issues. Greece has secured its next bailout payment, but markets will now start looking at Spain and Italy. With the creation of the Banking Union due in January, its banks still have some rather ugly bad loans and property on the books.
Until the European budget is in place, or there are signs that an agreement is close, its hard to see the Euro breaking the 1.30 level.
Today, equity markets open and trade slightly firmer, hitting day highs in the first hour, before we see them drift easier as we see a string of profit taking and trimming in names like Samsung.
Data.11:30 Thailand trade balance
13:00 Singapore industrial production
16:00 Spanish mortgages
17:00 Italy consumer confidence
19:00 Ireland property prices
20:30 Turkey industrial confidence, capacity utilization
23:30 US Dallas Fed Manf
UK nationwide house prices
Events.09:00 Japan BoJ governor speaks in Nagoya
11:30 India RBI governor speaks at conference
17:30 Italy PM speaks at a conference
19:30 EU finance ministers talk on Greek debt
EU's Hedegaard visits Prague
Bonds.10:30 S.Korea 20yr auction
12:00 Singapore 3,6 month auction
12:00 Malaysia 3,6,9 month auction
13:30 Philippines 3,6,12 month auction
18:30 German 12 month auction
22:00 France 3,6,12 month auction
00:30 US 3,6 month auction
Earnings.Berry plastics(US), Bazaarvoice(US), Aberdeen(UK), Seadrill(NO), Cafe de Coral(HK), Emperor ent(HK), Goldin(HK), Tysan(HK), Mongolia Energy(HK), Dore(HK)
Stoddart
The weekend press was highly concentrated towards the EU budget, and the failure to 1. agree to Van Rompuy's proposal 2. agree to an adjusted version.
Listening to the responses, it seems France's Hollande is unhappy with the size of the spending cuts. Not long in power, he is already under pressure due to a monetary policy which required higher levels of growth to boost employment and support public spending. The recent downgrade from Moody's highlights their lack of optimism, that this is achievable.
Germany's Merkel has also come under pressure, but it appears the German's have a greater willing than the French, to reduce the widening deficit. With their strong ties with France, it is now hoped that an agreement can be reached between the UK and France, where Germany can help broker the deal.
Sticky issues include; high public spending, retirement age and state pension demands, and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP).
The last one, is what seems to be getting a lot of attention. The CAP, was bought in after the second world war to encourage food production and subsides existing infrastructure. In my youth, it was designed to support prices, which were dramatically falling due to over production. Butter and Sugar mountains were created as the CAP purchased the over production from farmers, helping keep them in business.
Ow how things have changed. The mountains have long since gone, with rising demand and a shift of labor from the countryside to the cities in the early-mid 2000's, has now seen the globe struggle to increase supply.
The UK's argument, that a free market should determine supply and demand, thus reducing the cost of CAP on the budget, its understandable, but mental. Risking the supply chain of food stuffs could have a huge impact on inflation, especially after seeing the recent impact of adverse weather on production.
Both sides need to give a little, but to abandon or dramatically reduced funding to the CAP, is not the answer.
Markets.As the cost of hurricane Sandy come in, the US are instead choosing to look at the cap ex, that will now take place cross the eastern coast. Initial strong black friday sales also seem to have the market positive with names like Walmart and Target all strong on Friday.
As the Euro continues to strengthen, equity markets look set to remain strong. Inflows should consumer electronics and industrials run, both of which have been huge laggers over the last 12 months. This should also see further support to the container ships.
However, Europe is yet to resolve its budget issues. Greece has secured its next bailout payment, but markets will now start looking at Spain and Italy. With the creation of the Banking Union due in January, its banks still have some rather ugly bad loans and property on the books.
Until the European budget is in place, or there are signs that an agreement is close, its hard to see the Euro breaking the 1.30 level.
Today, equity markets open and trade slightly firmer, hitting day highs in the first hour, before we see them drift easier as we see a string of profit taking and trimming in names like Samsung.
Data.11:30 Thailand trade balance
13:00 Singapore industrial production
16:00 Spanish mortgages
17:00 Italy consumer confidence
19:00 Ireland property prices
20:30 Turkey industrial confidence, capacity utilization
23:30 US Dallas Fed Manf
UK nationwide house prices
Events.09:00 Japan BoJ governor speaks in Nagoya
11:30 India RBI governor speaks at conference
17:30 Italy PM speaks at a conference
19:30 EU finance ministers talk on Greek debt
EU's Hedegaard visits Prague
Bonds.10:30 S.Korea 20yr auction
12:00 Singapore 3,6 month auction
12:00 Malaysia 3,6,9 month auction
13:30 Philippines 3,6,12 month auction
18:30 German 12 month auction
22:00 France 3,6,12 month auction
00:30 US 3,6 month auction
Earnings.Berry plastics(US), Bazaarvoice(US), Aberdeen(UK), Seadrill(NO), Cafe de Coral(HK), Emperor ent(HK), Goldin(HK), Tysan(HK), Mongolia Energy(HK), Dore(HK)
Stoddart
Thursday, 22 November 2012
Morning note, data, events, bonds and earnings 23rd November 2012
Good morning,
With the US out last night, European markets saw volumes fall by an average of 25%. The continued run in the Euro and JPY weakness helped push basic material prices high and lifting European equity markets. The were also boosted by the China HSBC PMI, which came in at 50.4, indicating growth.
In the bond market, Greece 10yr yields firmed 37bps to 16.06%, whilst strong demand in the Spanish auction, saw 10yr yields fall a further 7bps to 5.62%. Italy's debt also continued to firm, now trading comfortably below 5%, at 4.77%
FTSE +0.7% v.low volume; O/P: cons.goods, cons.services U/P: telco, Oil&gas,
CAC +0.6% v.low volume; O/P: tech, utilities U/P: telco, oil&gas
DAX +0.8% v.low volume; O/P: cons.services, financial U/P: utilities, cons.goods
IBEX +0.9% v.low volume; O/P: cons.services, oil&gas U/P: tech, utilities
Sector charts mixed overnight, however, all markets finally saw basic materials at the upper end. The financial sector also remain strong, despite a very good performance over the last 6 months.
I was expecting more inflows to Oil & Gas, this I still believe to be the next level of rotation, however, it does require some patience.
Data over night saw French PMI manufacturing come in at 44.7 vs expected 44.00, services came in 46.1 vs expected 45.0.
German PMI manu was 46.8 vs expected 46.0, services 48.0 vs expected 48.3.
Both countries help support the European numbers, where manufacturing was 46.2, vs estimates 45.6, and services 45.7, vs expected 46.0.
Eurozone consumer services came in weaker at -26.9, vs the survey -25.9.
Markets.With the US and Japan closed, equity volumes will mirror Europe's reduced levels. With the sectors gearing towards more defensive sectors like consumer goods, Asia will continue to see these names trending firmer.
The recent run in China property is starting to look overdone, its time to reduce.
Whilst oils lack luster performance, despite crude trending higher, should see rotation into the sector. Petrochina(857) looks attractive here. This should also help boost the chemicals industry as well, as stronger than expected PMI in China should see sentiment improve.
Markets open firmer, then trend sideways throughout the session as the Eur continues to hold the 1.29 level. There seems little to push the Euro through resistance levels at present, but should the EU budget talks provide some positive light, we should see flows start moving out of UST's into the higher yielding European debt.
Data. 13:00 Singapore CPI
15:00 German GDP, import/exports, govt spending, consumption
15:45 France production outlook
16:00 Spain producer prices
17:00 Italy retail sales
17:00 German IFO
Thailand customs exports/trade balance
Events.17:30 India Chairman of PM's to discuss direct taxes
21:00 Portugal Bank of Portugal monthly budget
EU leaders summit on 7yr budget
Bonds.19:00 UK 1,3,6 month auction
Earnings.Net dragon(HK), Parkson(HK), Genting Plantations(MK), Genting(MK), Telekom Malaysia(MK), Aeon Malay(MK), Sime darby(MK), Philip morris(CZ)
Stoddart
With the US out last night, European markets saw volumes fall by an average of 25%. The continued run in the Euro and JPY weakness helped push basic material prices high and lifting European equity markets. The were also boosted by the China HSBC PMI, which came in at 50.4, indicating growth.
In the bond market, Greece 10yr yields firmed 37bps to 16.06%, whilst strong demand in the Spanish auction, saw 10yr yields fall a further 7bps to 5.62%. Italy's debt also continued to firm, now trading comfortably below 5%, at 4.77%
FTSE +0.7% v.low volume; O/P: cons.goods, cons.services U/P: telco, Oil&gas,
CAC +0.6% v.low volume; O/P: tech, utilities U/P: telco, oil&gas
DAX +0.8% v.low volume; O/P: cons.services, financial U/P: utilities, cons.goods
IBEX +0.9% v.low volume; O/P: cons.services, oil&gas U/P: tech, utilities
Sector charts mixed overnight, however, all markets finally saw basic materials at the upper end. The financial sector also remain strong, despite a very good performance over the last 6 months.
I was expecting more inflows to Oil & Gas, this I still believe to be the next level of rotation, however, it does require some patience.
Data over night saw French PMI manufacturing come in at 44.7 vs expected 44.00, services came in 46.1 vs expected 45.0.
German PMI manu was 46.8 vs expected 46.0, services 48.0 vs expected 48.3.
Both countries help support the European numbers, where manufacturing was 46.2, vs estimates 45.6, and services 45.7, vs expected 46.0.
Eurozone consumer services came in weaker at -26.9, vs the survey -25.9.
Markets.With the US and Japan closed, equity volumes will mirror Europe's reduced levels. With the sectors gearing towards more defensive sectors like consumer goods, Asia will continue to see these names trending firmer.
The recent run in China property is starting to look overdone, its time to reduce.
Whilst oils lack luster performance, despite crude trending higher, should see rotation into the sector. Petrochina(857) looks attractive here. This should also help boost the chemicals industry as well, as stronger than expected PMI in China should see sentiment improve.
Markets open firmer, then trend sideways throughout the session as the Eur continues to hold the 1.29 level. There seems little to push the Euro through resistance levels at present, but should the EU budget talks provide some positive light, we should see flows start moving out of UST's into the higher yielding European debt.
Data. 13:00 Singapore CPI
15:00 German GDP, import/exports, govt spending, consumption
15:45 France production outlook
16:00 Spain producer prices
17:00 Italy retail sales
17:00 German IFO
Thailand customs exports/trade balance
Events.17:30 India Chairman of PM's to discuss direct taxes
21:00 Portugal Bank of Portugal monthly budget
EU leaders summit on 7yr budget
Bonds.19:00 UK 1,3,6 month auction
Earnings.Net dragon(HK), Parkson(HK), Genting Plantations(MK), Genting(MK), Telekom Malaysia(MK), Aeon Malay(MK), Sime darby(MK), Philip morris(CZ)
Stoddart
Wednesday, 21 November 2012
Morning note, data, events, bonds and earnings 22nd November 2012
Good morning,
Protection.
A major part of investing. Many a time have I said to our sales guys, "I'll protect at .50". With such large positions/expose to equities, and sentiment swinging like a Cathay pilot living in Discovery Bay, fund managers like to be able to use options to "protect" for both the downside and upside.
And this is the problem. With protection, such as options, trading cheap, additional risk can be cover quickly at relatively low rates. The current environment, however, is miss priced and wrongly represented.
Many market commentators use the VIX as a bench mark for volatility. Now, despite being a major gauge, I have searched high and low for options that trades close to the VIX. For example, the VIX is currently priced at 15, however, ICBC, currently valued at 218b US$, and trades over 140m US$ a day, has its options priced with implied vol at 24.
It gets worse, look at companies like China Mobile, one of the worlds largest mobile telco providers, currently with implied vol of 32, and Yanzhou coal's implied vol at 43, it certainly put me off from buying derivatives to 1. get exposure and 2. hedge my current existing long futures position.
Despite being a complete loner, in this case I'm not alone. Speaking to a number of funds that have used warrants and options in the past, they too share my predicament. The problem is, cash currently trades at a premium. Tight credit markets dont just hit 35yr old, middle income Mr Jones looking for a $400k mortgage, it also hits every single aspect of everyday life, including derivatives.
"Then if its too rich Stoddart, sell it" I was told by a good friend last night (after a few glasses of the demon, Rum). "No" I retorted. With credit markets looking tight for the near future, implied vol could quite easily rally another 20-30% from here, making not just outright directional views pointless and hedging like having to buy a condom for $500. Any value you have in the options, will be hit by an adjustment of the implied vol.
This is impacting volumes globally. Last night saw European and US volumes down 30% vs daily averages. Given the strong run this week in equities, I was expecting some degree of pull back, but markets continue to remain strong.
Big bond auction today in Spain..."Show me the moneyyyyy"
FTSE +0.1% v.low volume; O/P: tech, utilities U/P: telco, basic materials
CAC +0.4% v.low volume; O/P: telco, utilities U/P: health, basic mateials
DAX +0.2% v.low volume; O/P: tech, telco U/P: industrials, cons.services
IBEX +0.3% v.low volume; O/P: oil & gas, financial U/P: health, cons.services
Despite a strong performance from European equity markets, volumes were shockingly low. Equity indices opened and the lows, trending firmer throughout the session, and closing at day highs. We also saw the Euro rally against the US$, now trading at 1.2858 but this run done nothing to support crude oil, which saw the WTI trade $2 easier at $87. Sentiment clearly looking for strong CF/NI, highlighting limited interest in near/medium term growth.
US markets traded relatively flat over the session last night, which given its thanks giving today, is not surprising. Interest is clearly focused on "how to make the best gravy" and what the spread is going to be on the Skin's vs Cowboy's. Happy thanks giving.
S&P +0.2% v.low volume; O/P: oil & gas, telco U/P: utilities, health
Despite crude easing, oil and gas was the top performing sector...finally. Rotation into laggers will increase into year end as shorts are covered and fund managers move to a more neutral based portfolio. My optimism remains high for GDP to pick up the pace in 3Q 2013, not 2015 as quoted by one of the Tier 1's (based in Switzerland, and gave a 50b US$ book to a 25yr son of a diplomat), which means oil & gas is the sector you want to be long. Its priced in US$ and demand is directly correlated to growth.
Financial's remain toppy here.
Markets.Expect equity markets to open relatively strong today. China retested the 2000 level again and guess what? it then rallied sharply from there. More and more investors are coming to the thinking that the JPY rally is now in a reversal, which is great for exporters, but they need it back at 100y before they start ordering the 1982 petrus.
Expect a strong run in recent laggards. Shipping, commodities and oil should all see increased volume. Exporters should also remain hot. Selling should occur in banks and China property, which have been huge outperformers over the last 3 months.
Spain auction today, bond have been firming recently, now at 5.68, but with talks of a Greek fail, we could see some negativity once again. However, the French finance minister played this down...ish.
Data. 09:45 China HSBC flash manufacturing
16:00 PMI manufacturing/services
16:30 German PMI/services
16:30 HK CPI
17:00 EU PMI
19:00 UK CBI
23:00 EU consumer confidence
Events.15:00 German finance ministry monthly report
17:00 Italy possible pass of budget law
EU's Barnier visits Barcelona, EU Xstrata ruling
Bonds.11:00 Thailand 3yr auction
17:30 Spain 3,5,9 year auction
Earnings.Daily mail(UK), SABMiller(UK), Sparkle roll(HK), Ascendas Hos Trust(SP), Lafarge Malayan(MK), Genting Malaysia(MK)
Stoddart
Protection.
A major part of investing. Many a time have I said to our sales guys, "I'll protect at .50". With such large positions/expose to equities, and sentiment swinging like a Cathay pilot living in Discovery Bay, fund managers like to be able to use options to "protect" for both the downside and upside.
And this is the problem. With protection, such as options, trading cheap, additional risk can be cover quickly at relatively low rates. The current environment, however, is miss priced and wrongly represented.
Many market commentators use the VIX as a bench mark for volatility. Now, despite being a major gauge, I have searched high and low for options that trades close to the VIX. For example, the VIX is currently priced at 15, however, ICBC, currently valued at 218b US$, and trades over 140m US$ a day, has its options priced with implied vol at 24.
It gets worse, look at companies like China Mobile, one of the worlds largest mobile telco providers, currently with implied vol of 32, and Yanzhou coal's implied vol at 43, it certainly put me off from buying derivatives to 1. get exposure and 2. hedge my current existing long futures position.
Despite being a complete loner, in this case I'm not alone. Speaking to a number of funds that have used warrants and options in the past, they too share my predicament. The problem is, cash currently trades at a premium. Tight credit markets dont just hit 35yr old, middle income Mr Jones looking for a $400k mortgage, it also hits every single aspect of everyday life, including derivatives.
"Then if its too rich Stoddart, sell it" I was told by a good friend last night (after a few glasses of the demon, Rum). "No" I retorted. With credit markets looking tight for the near future, implied vol could quite easily rally another 20-30% from here, making not just outright directional views pointless and hedging like having to buy a condom for $500. Any value you have in the options, will be hit by an adjustment of the implied vol.
This is impacting volumes globally. Last night saw European and US volumes down 30% vs daily averages. Given the strong run this week in equities, I was expecting some degree of pull back, but markets continue to remain strong.
Big bond auction today in Spain..."Show me the moneyyyyy"
FTSE +0.1% v.low volume; O/P: tech, utilities U/P: telco, basic materials
CAC +0.4% v.low volume; O/P: telco, utilities U/P: health, basic mateials
DAX +0.2% v.low volume; O/P: tech, telco U/P: industrials, cons.services
IBEX +0.3% v.low volume; O/P: oil & gas, financial U/P: health, cons.services
Despite a strong performance from European equity markets, volumes were shockingly low. Equity indices opened and the lows, trending firmer throughout the session, and closing at day highs. We also saw the Euro rally against the US$, now trading at 1.2858 but this run done nothing to support crude oil, which saw the WTI trade $2 easier at $87. Sentiment clearly looking for strong CF/NI, highlighting limited interest in near/medium term growth.
US markets traded relatively flat over the session last night, which given its thanks giving today, is not surprising. Interest is clearly focused on "how to make the best gravy" and what the spread is going to be on the Skin's vs Cowboy's. Happy thanks giving.
S&P +0.2% v.low volume; O/P: oil & gas, telco U/P: utilities, health
Despite crude easing, oil and gas was the top performing sector...finally. Rotation into laggers will increase into year end as shorts are covered and fund managers move to a more neutral based portfolio. My optimism remains high for GDP to pick up the pace in 3Q 2013, not 2015 as quoted by one of the Tier 1's (based in Switzerland, and gave a 50b US$ book to a 25yr son of a diplomat), which means oil & gas is the sector you want to be long. Its priced in US$ and demand is directly correlated to growth.
Financial's remain toppy here.
Markets.Expect equity markets to open relatively strong today. China retested the 2000 level again and guess what? it then rallied sharply from there. More and more investors are coming to the thinking that the JPY rally is now in a reversal, which is great for exporters, but they need it back at 100y before they start ordering the 1982 petrus.
Expect a strong run in recent laggards. Shipping, commodities and oil should all see increased volume. Exporters should also remain hot. Selling should occur in banks and China property, which have been huge outperformers over the last 3 months.
Spain auction today, bond have been firming recently, now at 5.68, but with talks of a Greek fail, we could see some negativity once again. However, the French finance minister played this down...ish.
Data. 09:45 China HSBC flash manufacturing
16:00 PMI manufacturing/services
16:30 German PMI/services
16:30 HK CPI
17:00 EU PMI
19:00 UK CBI
23:00 EU consumer confidence
Events.15:00 German finance ministry monthly report
17:00 Italy possible pass of budget law
EU's Barnier visits Barcelona, EU Xstrata ruling
Bonds.11:00 Thailand 3yr auction
17:30 Spain 3,5,9 year auction
Earnings.Daily mail(UK), SABMiller(UK), Sparkle roll(HK), Ascendas Hos Trust(SP), Lafarge Malayan(MK), Genting Malaysia(MK)
Stoddart
Stoddart's ETF model portfolio 21st November 2012
Fund performance is based on inception, which was 2nd July 2012.
| ASSET CLASS | TICKER | WEIGHTING | PERFORMANCE % |
| EQUITY | RWL US | 0.05 | 3.05 |
| SPY US | 0.05 | 1.96 | |
| FXI US | 0.02 | 7.56 | |
| EWY US | 0.02 | 7.56 | |
| EEM US | 0.07 | 4.88 | |
| BRIC LN | 0.03 | 0.89 | |
| VGK US | 0.07 | 5.43 | |
| SX7EEX GY | 0.03 | 13.60 | |
| EWP US | 0.01 | 10.49 | |
| EWI US | 0.01 | 6.84 | |
| EWG US | 0.01 | 6.88 | |
| EWQ US | 0.01 | 5.84 | |
| GDXJ US | 0.02 | 15.11 | |
| DEBT | EBMMEX GY | 0.05 | -0.02 |
| IBGS LN | 0.05 | 3.19 | |
| IBGX LN | 0.15 | 3.31 | |
| EMB US | 0.15 | 5.70 | |
| HYG US | 0.15 | 1.34 | |
| LQD US | 0.05 | 3.26 | |
| PERCENT | 5.548 | ||
| MSCI WORLD | 3.330 | ||
| PERFORMANCE | 2.218 |
Tuesday, 20 November 2012
Morning note, data, events, bonds and earning 21st November 2012
Good morning,
As the sun breaches the eastern shores of Singapore, and memories of the night before become more vivid, helping explain the plant pot in the middle of the bedroom floor, the US housing data is backing my optimism of US growth beating analysts estimates.
Despite my kind gesture of a tree, the misses remains unimpressed.
Equity markets overnight held quite well, considering such a strong run on Monday, I was looking for some pull back yesterday. Stronger than expected US housing starts and building permits help support equities whilst currencies continued strength against the US$ boosts markets in Europe.
European markets saw a big drop in volume overnight, leaving me a little nervous on the recent strong move. With the Euro at such major technical resistance levels, investors seem to be sitting back and waiting for confirmation that "the world is now ok". Bond markets seems to conform, with Spanish and Italian debt firming 11 and 6 basis points, whilst US treasuries gave back last weeks gains, with the 10yr now trading at 1.67%.
FTSE +0.2% avg volume; O/P: telco, industrial U/P: tech, financial
CAC +0.7% v.low volume; O/P: health, cons.services U/P: tech, telco
DAX +0.7% v.low volume; O/P: basic materials, industrials U/P: utilities, telco
IBEX +0.2% v.low volume; O/P: industrials, cons.services U/P: tech, basic mats
Sector maps show very mixed signals, however, the outperformance of industrials would leave us to believe that there is some short covering out there. This is also reflected with basic materials performing. Huge inventories and slowing China growth has seen prices continue to remain weak, leaving every fundamentalist negative not just in the near term, but as far out as 2015 before we see price recovery. As risk is reduced, so are shorts, helping (finally) to see some rotation of capital back into both industrials and basic materials, I expect this to continue.
The financial sector has been extremely strong over the last 3 months, as the market sees efforts from central banks to boost credit and lending, should see revenues increase. Like 2008, this will come at a cost, quality. The sector is starting to look rich here and yes, they will be the first to benefit from policy, but at these levels, it looks priced in.
US markets were have a rough day early in the session, with a sharp sell off mid-way through as Bernanke warns that the central bank has little power if congress cant agree on the up coming tax cuts and spending policy expiry.
But this was soon reversed, as sentiment remains high on the back of Obama being able to agree with Tea Party representative Paul Ryan, and get new policies through without delay.
Data overnight saw housing starts increase to 894k vs expected 840k, whilst building permits came in at 866k vs expected 864k.
S&P 0.1% low volume; O/P: health, financial U/P: tech, oil & gas
Despite the weaker US$, oil and gas gave back some of Mondays gains with Chevron 0.8% easier. Tech also sold down on the back of HP down 12%, dragging the sector lower, and heavy weight Apple, down 0.9% after a strong run on Monday.
The financial sector was also strong again last night and is starting to look top. A number of private wealth guys were trying to sell the idea of going long the sector but personally, at these levels it looks toppy. REDUCE/SELL
Markets.Asian markets trended easier yesterday, with HK closing at the lows. I expect a bounce on the open but we should see them drift sideways for most of the day. With currencies at major resistance levels, I see limited triggers to push us through those levels.
Bank of England minutes due today at 17:30 singapore time.
At these levels, I continue to like coal and oil, as we see rotation into lagging sectors. China property is starting to look rich here, reduce.
Mitsui OSK, which is suffering from weak dry bulk rates, had a fantastic move yesterday on strong volume, I like this. BUY
Data.16:30 Netherlands house prices
17:30 UK Bank of England minutes, public finances
20:00 US MBA mortgage apps
21:30 US jobless claims
22:55 Uni of Michigan confidence
23:00 US leading indicators
Spain trade balance
Events.08:30 Australia RBA minutes
21:30 Spain Bank of Spain governor speaks in Madrid
22:00 Italy Bank of Italy speaks
Euro finance ministers hold meeting on Greece
Bonds.09:30 China 1,3,5,7,10 year auction
11:00 Thailand 1,3 and 6 month auction
12:30 Taiwan 30 year auction
13:30 Philippines 7year auction
17:30 Spain 364 and 509day auction
18:30 UK 5year auction
00:30 US 1 month auction
Earnings.Deere(US), CareFusion(US), Zodiac Aerospace(FR), Johnson Matthey(UK), China resources Ent(HK), Texwinca(HK), Oriental watch(HK), City telecom(HK), Citic(CH), Airaisa(MK), Ukrnafta oil(RU)
Stoddart
As the sun breaches the eastern shores of Singapore, and memories of the night before become more vivid, helping explain the plant pot in the middle of the bedroom floor, the US housing data is backing my optimism of US growth beating analysts estimates.
Despite my kind gesture of a tree, the misses remains unimpressed.
Equity markets overnight held quite well, considering such a strong run on Monday, I was looking for some pull back yesterday. Stronger than expected US housing starts and building permits help support equities whilst currencies continued strength against the US$ boosts markets in Europe.
European markets saw a big drop in volume overnight, leaving me a little nervous on the recent strong move. With the Euro at such major technical resistance levels, investors seem to be sitting back and waiting for confirmation that "the world is now ok". Bond markets seems to conform, with Spanish and Italian debt firming 11 and 6 basis points, whilst US treasuries gave back last weeks gains, with the 10yr now trading at 1.67%.
FTSE +0.2% avg volume; O/P: telco, industrial U/P: tech, financial
CAC +0.7% v.low volume; O/P: health, cons.services U/P: tech, telco
DAX +0.7% v.low volume; O/P: basic materials, industrials U/P: utilities, telco
IBEX +0.2% v.low volume; O/P: industrials, cons.services U/P: tech, basic mats
Sector maps show very mixed signals, however, the outperformance of industrials would leave us to believe that there is some short covering out there. This is also reflected with basic materials performing. Huge inventories and slowing China growth has seen prices continue to remain weak, leaving every fundamentalist negative not just in the near term, but as far out as 2015 before we see price recovery. As risk is reduced, so are shorts, helping (finally) to see some rotation of capital back into both industrials and basic materials, I expect this to continue.
The financial sector has been extremely strong over the last 3 months, as the market sees efforts from central banks to boost credit and lending, should see revenues increase. Like 2008, this will come at a cost, quality. The sector is starting to look rich here and yes, they will be the first to benefit from policy, but at these levels, it looks priced in.
US markets were have a rough day early in the session, with a sharp sell off mid-way through as Bernanke warns that the central bank has little power if congress cant agree on the up coming tax cuts and spending policy expiry.
But this was soon reversed, as sentiment remains high on the back of Obama being able to agree with Tea Party representative Paul Ryan, and get new policies through without delay.
Data overnight saw housing starts increase to 894k vs expected 840k, whilst building permits came in at 866k vs expected 864k.
S&P 0.1% low volume; O/P: health, financial U/P: tech, oil & gas
Despite the weaker US$, oil and gas gave back some of Mondays gains with Chevron 0.8% easier. Tech also sold down on the back of HP down 12%, dragging the sector lower, and heavy weight Apple, down 0.9% after a strong run on Monday.
The financial sector was also strong again last night and is starting to look top. A number of private wealth guys were trying to sell the idea of going long the sector but personally, at these levels it looks toppy. REDUCE/SELL
Markets.Asian markets trended easier yesterday, with HK closing at the lows. I expect a bounce on the open but we should see them drift sideways for most of the day. With currencies at major resistance levels, I see limited triggers to push us through those levels.
Bank of England minutes due today at 17:30 singapore time.
At these levels, I continue to like coal and oil, as we see rotation into lagging sectors. China property is starting to look rich here, reduce.
Mitsui OSK, which is suffering from weak dry bulk rates, had a fantastic move yesterday on strong volume, I like this. BUY
Data.16:30 Netherlands house prices
17:30 UK Bank of England minutes, public finances
20:00 US MBA mortgage apps
21:30 US jobless claims
22:55 Uni of Michigan confidence
23:00 US leading indicators
Spain trade balance
Events.08:30 Australia RBA minutes
21:30 Spain Bank of Spain governor speaks in Madrid
22:00 Italy Bank of Italy speaks
Euro finance ministers hold meeting on Greece
Bonds.09:30 China 1,3,5,7,10 year auction
11:00 Thailand 1,3 and 6 month auction
12:30 Taiwan 30 year auction
13:30 Philippines 7year auction
17:30 Spain 364 and 509day auction
18:30 UK 5year auction
00:30 US 1 month auction
Earnings.Deere(US), CareFusion(US), Zodiac Aerospace(FR), Johnson Matthey(UK), China resources Ent(HK), Texwinca(HK), Oriental watch(HK), City telecom(HK), Citic(CH), Airaisa(MK), Ukrnafta oil(RU)
Stoddart
Monday, 19 November 2012
Morning note, data, events, bonds and earnings 20th November 2012
Good morning,
Optimism was lifted overnight as strong debt and headlines now support Obama's plans to reduce the US deficit. As expected, equity markets finally start reacting to the currency markets, where the US$ continues to weaken vs majors. Now with the Euro and Sterling at major technical levels, do they have the momentum to push through resistance levels, or are they setting up to move sideways in the near term?
European markets opened at the lows and trended firmer throughout the session, closing on the highs, however, volumes remained below average.
Spanish bad loans are over the headlines today, mostly on loans and mortgages, equating to 10.7% of total loans or 182.2 billion euros in September.
Overnight we also had a French bond downgrade, loosing the almighty AAA rating, now AA1 by Moody's. Fears will be others are to follow. The downgrade cited 1. worse longer term outlook; 2. uncertainty on economic growth prospects; 3. falling resilience to future euro shocks.
This is mud on the face of Hollande, who was looking for increased spending to boost GDP, and tax revenues to pay for the spending.
FTSE +2.4% avg volume; O/P: tech, financials U/P: health, utilities
CAC +2.9% low volume; O/P: financials, tech U/P: health, telco
DAX +2.5% avg volume; O/P: cons.good, tech U/P: health, utilites
IBEX +2.3% avg volume; O/P: tech, financials U/P: health, industrial
A complete reversal from last weeks defensive move into healthcare. With improving housing markets in the UK, investors brush off the Spanish bad loans data, and European bonds remain relatively unchanged. The Euro is also supporting which rallied nearly 1 big figure overnight, now trading at 1.2780.
European indices are looking rich here with German's DAX trading on 14x earnings, vs the S&P also trading on 14x, however, on book value the DAX is only 1.35, and the S&P is on 2.09.
With such negativity since the US election, equity markets were long overdue a bounce, and with volume remaining around average plus the Euro at major resistance levels, this move has little behind it. The longer term outlook is positive for European equities but with growth set to increase slowly, overnight moves on little data will soon correct.
Data overnight saw Italian industrial production fall -4.0% vs expected -1.0% but this is also impacted by floods in Europe.
Greece current a/c came in at 775m, as exports of services fell from 3965m to 2920m month on month, mostly in travel.
The EU construction output fell -1.4% MoM, due mostly to a large fall in the Czech republic, German and Poland. Spain was actually up 1.4%, whilst Slovenia went from a -19.6% to -0.2% quarter on quarter.
US markets traded similar to that of Europe, opening at the lows and trending firmer throughout the session, closing at day highs. UST's saw yields fall slightly but with the 10year still at 1.61, and AAA rated, there will continue to be demand, especially if we see investors increase cash positions into year end.
S&P +2.0% avg volume; O/P: tech, basic materials U/P; utilities, health
Tech seeing a strong rebound, helped mostly by Apple (AAPL), which rebounded +7.2% last night. Expect this stock to squeeze further given the recent stream of negativity on its growth. I have to agree, the outlook for AAPL is limited due to falling innovation, however, short levels would be nearer $600 again.
With equities finally mirroring currencies, oil and basic materials were both strong last night. The US sectors map highlights Paper +3.7%, industrial materials +.3.1% and mining +1.9%, this sector has more to go as funds move to a more equally weighted position, also expect a short squeeze.
With optimism on the US finding a solution to reduce its deficit whilst spending to encourage growth, investors turn to the financial sector. Credit markets are such, that banks remain nervous on lending, ie tight credit markets, which mean real interest rates remain high and loan growth weak. However, as growth estimates improve and housing markets get support, we should see an increased level of lending. Bad credit ratings will improve but a full blown property market rally is some way off.
Markets.Asian markets already priced in some of this move yesterday, but should have more to go. Expect markets to rally on the open to day highs, and then trade easier as the Euro struggles at resistance levels.
Sectors, still not too late to buy Alu, coal, steel and oil. Top picks, Angang(347), Chalco(2600), Yanzhou(1171) and Petrochina(857), but CNOOC(883) will also benefit from improving crude.
As China property prices increase, banks should also see inflows as will property developers, however, due to government intervention the credit markets will remain tight.
IPP has been a strong sector this year and going into China winter, but is now looking rich. SELL
US building permits/housing starts today... lets see if we get some follow-through on US housing.
Data.10:00 China FDI
12:30 Japan industrial activity
15:00 German PPI
16:30 Netherlands consumer confidence (important due to noise on the Euro)
21:30 US housing starts, building permits
BoJ target rate
Events.02:00 EU Van Rompuy meets ministers on budget talks
07:00 Monti in UAE
08:30 Australia reserve minutes
17:00 EU general affairs minister prep budget summit
22:00 US Fed's Lacker speaks on monetary policy
Bonds.09:30 China 1,3,5,7,10 year auction
11:30 Thailand 1,3/12 month auction
12:30 Taiwan 30 year auction
17:30 Spain 1,2 year auction
18:30 UK 5 year auction
19:00 EFSF 6 month auction
00:30 US 1 month auction
Earnings.Campbell soup(US), HJ Heinz(US), HP(US), Medtronic(US), Best Buy(US), British Land(UK), OPAP(GR), easyjet(UK), Digital China(HK), Lee & Man(HK), Guinness Anchor(MK), SK Chem(SK)
Stoddart
Optimism was lifted overnight as strong debt and headlines now support Obama's plans to reduce the US deficit. As expected, equity markets finally start reacting to the currency markets, where the US$ continues to weaken vs majors. Now with the Euro and Sterling at major technical levels, do they have the momentum to push through resistance levels, or are they setting up to move sideways in the near term?
European markets opened at the lows and trended firmer throughout the session, closing on the highs, however, volumes remained below average.
Spanish bad loans are over the headlines today, mostly on loans and mortgages, equating to 10.7% of total loans or 182.2 billion euros in September.
Overnight we also had a French bond downgrade, loosing the almighty AAA rating, now AA1 by Moody's. Fears will be others are to follow. The downgrade cited 1. worse longer term outlook; 2. uncertainty on economic growth prospects; 3. falling resilience to future euro shocks.
This is mud on the face of Hollande, who was looking for increased spending to boost GDP, and tax revenues to pay for the spending.
FTSE +2.4% avg volume; O/P: tech, financials U/P: health, utilities
CAC +2.9% low volume; O/P: financials, tech U/P: health, telco
DAX +2.5% avg volume; O/P: cons.good, tech U/P: health, utilites
IBEX +2.3% avg volume; O/P: tech, financials U/P: health, industrial
A complete reversal from last weeks defensive move into healthcare. With improving housing markets in the UK, investors brush off the Spanish bad loans data, and European bonds remain relatively unchanged. The Euro is also supporting which rallied nearly 1 big figure overnight, now trading at 1.2780.
European indices are looking rich here with German's DAX trading on 14x earnings, vs the S&P also trading on 14x, however, on book value the DAX is only 1.35, and the S&P is on 2.09.
With such negativity since the US election, equity markets were long overdue a bounce, and with volume remaining around average plus the Euro at major resistance levels, this move has little behind it. The longer term outlook is positive for European equities but with growth set to increase slowly, overnight moves on little data will soon correct.
Data overnight saw Italian industrial production fall -4.0% vs expected -1.0% but this is also impacted by floods in Europe.
Greece current a/c came in at 775m, as exports of services fell from 3965m to 2920m month on month, mostly in travel.
The EU construction output fell -1.4% MoM, due mostly to a large fall in the Czech republic, German and Poland. Spain was actually up 1.4%, whilst Slovenia went from a -19.6% to -0.2% quarter on quarter.
US markets traded similar to that of Europe, opening at the lows and trending firmer throughout the session, closing at day highs. UST's saw yields fall slightly but with the 10year still at 1.61, and AAA rated, there will continue to be demand, especially if we see investors increase cash positions into year end.
S&P +2.0% avg volume; O/P: tech, basic materials U/P; utilities, health
Tech seeing a strong rebound, helped mostly by Apple (AAPL), which rebounded +7.2% last night. Expect this stock to squeeze further given the recent stream of negativity on its growth. I have to agree, the outlook for AAPL is limited due to falling innovation, however, short levels would be nearer $600 again.
With equities finally mirroring currencies, oil and basic materials were both strong last night. The US sectors map highlights Paper +3.7%, industrial materials +.3.1% and mining +1.9%, this sector has more to go as funds move to a more equally weighted position, also expect a short squeeze.
With optimism on the US finding a solution to reduce its deficit whilst spending to encourage growth, investors turn to the financial sector. Credit markets are such, that banks remain nervous on lending, ie tight credit markets, which mean real interest rates remain high and loan growth weak. However, as growth estimates improve and housing markets get support, we should see an increased level of lending. Bad credit ratings will improve but a full blown property market rally is some way off.
Markets.Asian markets already priced in some of this move yesterday, but should have more to go. Expect markets to rally on the open to day highs, and then trade easier as the Euro struggles at resistance levels.
Sectors, still not too late to buy Alu, coal, steel and oil. Top picks, Angang(347), Chalco(2600), Yanzhou(1171) and Petrochina(857), but CNOOC(883) will also benefit from improving crude.
As China property prices increase, banks should also see inflows as will property developers, however, due to government intervention the credit markets will remain tight.
IPP has been a strong sector this year and going into China winter, but is now looking rich. SELL
US building permits/housing starts today... lets see if we get some follow-through on US housing.
Data.10:00 China FDI
12:30 Japan industrial activity
15:00 German PPI
16:30 Netherlands consumer confidence (important due to noise on the Euro)
21:30 US housing starts, building permits
BoJ target rate
Events.02:00 EU Van Rompuy meets ministers on budget talks
07:00 Monti in UAE
08:30 Australia reserve minutes
17:00 EU general affairs minister prep budget summit
22:00 US Fed's Lacker speaks on monetary policy
Bonds.09:30 China 1,3,5,7,10 year auction
11:30 Thailand 1,3/12 month auction
12:30 Taiwan 30 year auction
17:30 Spain 1,2 year auction
18:30 UK 5 year auction
19:00 EFSF 6 month auction
00:30 US 1 month auction
Earnings.Campbell soup(US), HJ Heinz(US), HP(US), Medtronic(US), Best Buy(US), British Land(UK), OPAP(GR), easyjet(UK), Digital China(HK), Lee & Man(HK), Guinness Anchor(MK), SK Chem(SK)
Stoddart
Sunday, 18 November 2012
Morning note, data, events, bonds and earnings 19th November 2012
Good morning,
US markets on Friday gave us brief relief as Obama speaks to the house regarding the every nearing expiration of tax cuts and spending increases.
Its no surprise that as Obama tries to play "Robin Hood", the republicans are already putting conditions out there. They are willing to agree on increasing revenue by taxing top earners, however, this must be met by spending cuts in areas such as defense and Medicare.
Sector performances in the US point towards profit taking once more in technology and telco, whilst investors look at defensives such as utilities and consumer goods.
Interesting to note, we saw good volume pick up in basic materials. Companies like Alcoa(AA) trading at 52week lows are starting to see inflows I suspect on short covering as the fundamentals and outlook is rather bleak. That said, with some much negativity around growth, there is view that this is priced in.
Markets.The weekend press continued to highlight US debt deadlines and European negative growth. US thanks giving is also coming up on Thursday, which will no doubt leave volumes at the lower end of the range. We also have US housing numbers out this week, which will have been effected by Hurricane Sandy. We also have German GDP data, which looks set to remain flat, however, with the recent pressure on Merkel, should this come in weaker we could see pressure on the Euro once more.
Today we should see equity markets rebound after Friday afternoons sell off. Japan looks set to remain strong as US$JPY continues to trade above 81, at 81.40.
The Euro is also sitting on major support levels here, which could see equities start outperforming should we go back to test 1.28, but as mentioned, German GDP data due Thursday.
Equity markets trend firmer in the first hour, then look to flatten off, trading sideways in the afternoon.
Despite demand for defensives, oil, basic materials and industrials remain attractive here. We should see these start to squeeze as investors reduce risk into year end.
Consumer goods should benefit from the recent move in JPY, and with officials aiming for US$JPY to be at 82 by year end, we should see exporters supported. The question is, with global growth struggling, will overseas investors continue or increase purchases of JGB's.
In China, with the Shanghai indices trading around 2000, this is previous intervention levels, so watch for possible comments from government.
Data.08:00 UK Rightmove house prices
10:30 Thailand GDP
13:00 Japan leading index, coincident index, machine tool orders
16:30 HK unemployment
17:00 Italy industrial orders
18:00 EU construction output
23:00 US NHBA housing index, existing home sales
Greek current a/c
Events.16:30 EU foreign defense ministers meet
17:00 WTO dispute settlement body meets
EU's Barnier to discuss FSB with Carney
BOJ policy meeting
Bonds.10:30 S.Korea 10yr auction
11:35 Japan 2month auction
18:00 Netherlands 3,6 month auction
22:00 France 3,6,12 month auction
00:30 US 3,6 month auction
Earnings.Lowes(US), Tyson foods(US), Nuance Comm(US), Gome(HK), CSI Prop(HK), Next media(HK), Huabao(HK), Cerebos pac(SP), Tokio MArine(JP), SK holdings(SK), Korea exchange bank(SK), Korea gas(SK)
Stoddart
US markets on Friday gave us brief relief as Obama speaks to the house regarding the every nearing expiration of tax cuts and spending increases.
Its no surprise that as Obama tries to play "Robin Hood", the republicans are already putting conditions out there. They are willing to agree on increasing revenue by taxing top earners, however, this must be met by spending cuts in areas such as defense and Medicare.
Sector performances in the US point towards profit taking once more in technology and telco, whilst investors look at defensives such as utilities and consumer goods.
Interesting to note, we saw good volume pick up in basic materials. Companies like Alcoa(AA) trading at 52week lows are starting to see inflows I suspect on short covering as the fundamentals and outlook is rather bleak. That said, with some much negativity around growth, there is view that this is priced in.
Markets.The weekend press continued to highlight US debt deadlines and European negative growth. US thanks giving is also coming up on Thursday, which will no doubt leave volumes at the lower end of the range. We also have US housing numbers out this week, which will have been effected by Hurricane Sandy. We also have German GDP data, which looks set to remain flat, however, with the recent pressure on Merkel, should this come in weaker we could see pressure on the Euro once more.
Today we should see equity markets rebound after Friday afternoons sell off. Japan looks set to remain strong as US$JPY continues to trade above 81, at 81.40.
The Euro is also sitting on major support levels here, which could see equities start outperforming should we go back to test 1.28, but as mentioned, German GDP data due Thursday.
Equity markets trend firmer in the first hour, then look to flatten off, trading sideways in the afternoon.
Despite demand for defensives, oil, basic materials and industrials remain attractive here. We should see these start to squeeze as investors reduce risk into year end.
Consumer goods should benefit from the recent move in JPY, and with officials aiming for US$JPY to be at 82 by year end, we should see exporters supported. The question is, with global growth struggling, will overseas investors continue or increase purchases of JGB's.
In China, with the Shanghai indices trading around 2000, this is previous intervention levels, so watch for possible comments from government.
Data.08:00 UK Rightmove house prices
10:30 Thailand GDP
13:00 Japan leading index, coincident index, machine tool orders
16:30 HK unemployment
17:00 Italy industrial orders
18:00 EU construction output
23:00 US NHBA housing index, existing home sales
Greek current a/c
Events.16:30 EU foreign defense ministers meet
17:00 WTO dispute settlement body meets
EU's Barnier to discuss FSB with Carney
BOJ policy meeting
Bonds.10:30 S.Korea 10yr auction
11:35 Japan 2month auction
18:00 Netherlands 3,6 month auction
22:00 France 3,6,12 month auction
00:30 US 3,6 month auction
Earnings.Lowes(US), Tyson foods(US), Nuance Comm(US), Gome(HK), CSI Prop(HK), Next media(HK), Huabao(HK), Cerebos pac(SP), Tokio MArine(JP), SK holdings(SK), Korea exchange bank(SK), Korea gas(SK)
Stoddart
Thursday, 15 November 2012
Morning note, data, events, bonds and earnings 16th November 2012
Jo san,
Friday is here and there is a certain buzz in the GTO office. I'm already pricing the US up around 50bps on tonights close, where I was instantly hit by all but one of my colleagues.... but he was in the toilet so missed the price.
With TV's, newspapers and ever other note I read mentioning the "fiscal cliff", its feels like the investment community is heading down the Kardasian route, and dramatising ever event.
Agreed, Obama is having to play Robin Hood, taking from the rich, and giving to the poor. But the markets view that these tax increases will hit consumer spending is incorrect, infact, its the lower end of the income chain that spend the highest percentage of their earnings. Consumer spending and improved credit markets are the key to jobs growth.
Equity markets overnight were all easier, with little direction, however, volumes remain strong in major indices. In the currency markets, Eur continued to firm against the US$, testing the 1.28 level, currently 1.2780. The JPY also continued to weaken vs the US$, now 81.14. Very mixed signals from equity and currency markets, given these moves look bullish.... will correlation between currencies and equities correct back to normal.... I'd bet on it.
In bonds, we saw Spanish and Italian 10yr yields tighten around 4bps, whilst UST's widened from 1.5900 to 1.5930, which will also help support the Eur, as outflows from the US move across the pond.
In Europe, markets traded sideways in a 60bps range on around average volumes, leaving indices up just 5% year to date.
FTSE -0.8% avg volume; O/P: heath, financial U/P: cons.services, tech
CAC -0.5% avg volume; O/P: telco, cons.services U/P: tech, utilities
DAX -0.9% avg volume; O/P: telco, financial U/P: cons.services, tech
IBEX +0.3% avg volume; O/P: oil & gas, tech U/P: health, basic materials
Sector maps again looking relatively defensive, however, oil&gas which has been one of the worst performers over the last few weeks, is finally in the upper end of the table on all indices. Expect to see a short squeeze as we see sector rotation in to oil and commodities as the US$ continues to weaken against majors.
Data overnight saw French GDP come in at 0.2% vs expected flat. Spanish GDP came in as expected at -0.3, whilst Italy's was better at -0.2% vs expected -0.5%.
UK retail sales were weak at -0.7% vs estimates -0.1%, partly blamed on the cold weather but I suspect its more to do with credit remaining tight in the UK.
Euro-zone CPI was inline with expectations at 1.5%, as was the GDP number at -0.1%.
US markets opened positive on the open but drifted to day lows early session as jobless claims came in higher, blamed on hurricane Sandy.
S&P -0.2% avg volume; O/P: cons.goods, financial U/P: telco, basic materials
Financial stocks rebounding after Wednesdays sell off. Tech continuing to under perform but mostly due to Apple and Microsoft, as others in the sector like hardware are all outperforming. With the market getting super bearish Apple products, which I agree, the new Microsoft platform looks impressive, its time to short cover here.
Data in the US as CPI inline @ 0.1%. Empire manufacturing came in stronger than expected but still down, -5.22 in November vs estimates -8.00. US jobless claims increased 439k, vs estimates 375k.
Slightly concerning was the number of delinquencies, which have seen little improvement at 7.4%, with foreclosures still above the 4% level in the 3rd quarter.
Markets.Expect markets today to open flat to small down, but with the US$ weakening, we should see them trend firmer throughout the day, closing just off highs.
NB, oil heavy weight indices like HK will see additional strength as Petrochina outperforms...its still not to late to buy the sector, including chemicals.
Data.15:00 EU new car registrations
16:00 Turkey consumer confidence
16:30 HK GDP
17:00 ECB current a/c
17:00 Italy trade balance
18:00 EU trade balance
22:00 US foreign net transactions
China FDI, Japan monthly economic report
Events.17:00 Italian cabinet meets
23:15 US Obama meets lawmakers
Bonds.11:35 Japan 1 year auction
18:00 German 1,3 and 6 month auction
Earnings.Foot locker(US), Henkel(GE), LSE(GB), F&N(SP), YTL(MK), IOI(MK), Thai Bev(TH), KOC holding(TR), Trakya Cam Sanayi(TR), Turk Hava Yollari(TR), Philip Morris(CZ), Bank Forum(RU), Truly Intl(HK), City eSolutions(HK), Parkson(HK), Shandong Weigao(CH)
Stoddart
Friday is here and there is a certain buzz in the GTO office. I'm already pricing the US up around 50bps on tonights close, where I was instantly hit by all but one of my colleagues.... but he was in the toilet so missed the price.
With TV's, newspapers and ever other note I read mentioning the "fiscal cliff", its feels like the investment community is heading down the Kardasian route, and dramatising ever event.
Agreed, Obama is having to play Robin Hood, taking from the rich, and giving to the poor. But the markets view that these tax increases will hit consumer spending is incorrect, infact, its the lower end of the income chain that spend the highest percentage of their earnings. Consumer spending and improved credit markets are the key to jobs growth.
Equity markets overnight were all easier, with little direction, however, volumes remain strong in major indices. In the currency markets, Eur continued to firm against the US$, testing the 1.28 level, currently 1.2780. The JPY also continued to weaken vs the US$, now 81.14. Very mixed signals from equity and currency markets, given these moves look bullish.... will correlation between currencies and equities correct back to normal.... I'd bet on it.
In bonds, we saw Spanish and Italian 10yr yields tighten around 4bps, whilst UST's widened from 1.5900 to 1.5930, which will also help support the Eur, as outflows from the US move across the pond.
In Europe, markets traded sideways in a 60bps range on around average volumes, leaving indices up just 5% year to date.
FTSE -0.8% avg volume; O/P: heath, financial U/P: cons.services, tech
CAC -0.5% avg volume; O/P: telco, cons.services U/P: tech, utilities
DAX -0.9% avg volume; O/P: telco, financial U/P: cons.services, tech
IBEX +0.3% avg volume; O/P: oil & gas, tech U/P: health, basic materials
Sector maps again looking relatively defensive, however, oil&gas which has been one of the worst performers over the last few weeks, is finally in the upper end of the table on all indices. Expect to see a short squeeze as we see sector rotation in to oil and commodities as the US$ continues to weaken against majors.
Data overnight saw French GDP come in at 0.2% vs expected flat. Spanish GDP came in as expected at -0.3, whilst Italy's was better at -0.2% vs expected -0.5%.
UK retail sales were weak at -0.7% vs estimates -0.1%, partly blamed on the cold weather but I suspect its more to do with credit remaining tight in the UK.
Euro-zone CPI was inline with expectations at 1.5%, as was the GDP number at -0.1%.
US markets opened positive on the open but drifted to day lows early session as jobless claims came in higher, blamed on hurricane Sandy.
S&P -0.2% avg volume; O/P: cons.goods, financial U/P: telco, basic materials
Financial stocks rebounding after Wednesdays sell off. Tech continuing to under perform but mostly due to Apple and Microsoft, as others in the sector like hardware are all outperforming. With the market getting super bearish Apple products, which I agree, the new Microsoft platform looks impressive, its time to short cover here.
Data in the US as CPI inline @ 0.1%. Empire manufacturing came in stronger than expected but still down, -5.22 in November vs estimates -8.00. US jobless claims increased 439k, vs estimates 375k.
Slightly concerning was the number of delinquencies, which have seen little improvement at 7.4%, with foreclosures still above the 4% level in the 3rd quarter.
Markets.Expect markets today to open flat to small down, but with the US$ weakening, we should see them trend firmer throughout the day, closing just off highs.
NB, oil heavy weight indices like HK will see additional strength as Petrochina outperforms...its still not to late to buy the sector, including chemicals.
Data.15:00 EU new car registrations
16:00 Turkey consumer confidence
16:30 HK GDP
17:00 ECB current a/c
17:00 Italy trade balance
18:00 EU trade balance
22:00 US foreign net transactions
China FDI, Japan monthly economic report
Events.17:00 Italian cabinet meets
23:15 US Obama meets lawmakers
Bonds.11:35 Japan 1 year auction
18:00 German 1,3 and 6 month auction
Earnings.Foot locker(US), Henkel(GE), LSE(GB), F&N(SP), YTL(MK), IOI(MK), Thai Bev(TH), KOC holding(TR), Trakya Cam Sanayi(TR), Turk Hava Yollari(TR), Philip Morris(CZ), Bank Forum(RU), Truly Intl(HK), City eSolutions(HK), Parkson(HK), Shandong Weigao(CH)
Stoddart
Wednesday, 14 November 2012
Morning note, data, events, bonds and earnings 15th November 2012
Good morning,
Sentiment remains weak as Obama highlights being tough on the budget. Headlines point to increased revenue, as opposed to spending cuts, leaving investors fearful of higher taxes and the associated impact on growth in the medium term.
Despite the sell off in equities, the Euro not only remained above 1.27, but firmed throughout yesterday, hitting highs of 1.2778 before easing slightly back to 1.2736 currently.
Bond markets saw Spanish yields increase, with the 10 year at 5.90, up 10 basis points on the day, whilst the Italian 10 year looks set to test the 5% level once more, currently trading 4.95, up 6bps.
After such a strong run on Tuesday, with markets closing at day highs, European equity markets had already looked set to give back some of the gains. Opening relatively flat, indices traded mostly sideways until the US market open weaker, pushing Europe lower and closing at day lows.
FTSE -1.1% good volume; O/P: utilities, tech U/P: basic materials, oil&gas
CAC -0.9% avg volume; O/P: cons.services, tech U/P: industrials, oil&gas
DAX -0.9% avg volume; O/P: tech, cons.services U/P: utilities, industrials
IBEX -0.3% v.good volume; O/P: tech, utilities U/P: basic materials, industrials
Across all indices, growth remained a dirty word, with defensive outperforming. Despite the US$ weakening and crude oil firming to 86.24, oil related stocks were the biggest under-performers last night however, both BP and Shell went ex-dividend.
UK jobless claims increased by 10k, vs expected flat, whilst earnings increased 1.8% inline with expectations. Eurozone industrial production fell -2.5% vs expected -2.0%, with the biggest drops coming in Portugal, Greece and Ireland. Things didnt look much better in German and France, both dropping -2.1% and -2.7% respectfully. The drop was caused mostly by a large fall in durable goods, but all suffered a considerable fall.
In the US, of the 500 stocks in the S&P, only 39 were up on the day, 459 down.
S&P -1.4% good volume; O/P: telco, tech U/P: industrials, financial
The sector map, similar to Europe, shows defensive sectors again outperforming. Profit taking in the US financials is not surprising given 1. investors reducing risk, and 2. the strength over the last 5 months. There also appeared to be a number of short covers going through, with names like Facebook(FB US), finally moving higher... this has more to go.
Data overnight saw a strong MBA mortgage app number, up 12.6%. US producer price index came in weaker than expected at -0.2% vs estimates +0.2%. Retail sales also easier at flat vs expected +0.2%
Then we had the FOMC minutes. Highlights there include using inflation and unemployment as a guide for policy, rather than using a time based method. There are arguments for both but normally, the market would prefer a time line where adjustments are known and expected, therefore priced in.
In typical fashion, central bankers are more interested in popularity, spending more time adjusting policy to boost employment, rather than improving the business environment, which would inturn, increase employment.
Markets.Equity markets once again are coming under some rather heavy selling pressure. Sony is issuing a CB and increase cap ex, which today has seen its stock down 10% @ 780. Consumer electronics all suffering from weak demand in Europe but also hit by the firmer JPY. This sector is really starting to look cheap and at these levels, I would be tempted to pick up stock. Fundamentalist's hate it on outlook, but with the JPY weakening we should see margin improve.
Other names I would be looking to accumulate today include Angang(347), Petrochina(857), Sinopec Shanghai(338), Yanzhou(1171). China's new leaders will look to support domestic demand and will look to ease the public concerns on slowing growth.
Equity markets will sell down in the first half, hitting day lows midway through the morning session, before trending sides in the afternoon. I think there is too much macro overhang to encourage any buying interest, however, a possible bounce on short covering is not out of the question.
Data.13:00 Singapore retail sales
14:30 France GDP
15:00 German GDP
16:00 Spain GDP
16:00 Turkey current a/c, unemployment
16:30 Netherlands GDP
17:00 Italy GDP
17:00 ECB monthly report
17:30 UK retail sales
18:00 EU Eurozone CPI, GDP
18:00 Italy current a/c
21:30 US CPI, Empire manufacturing, initial jobless claims
22:45 US mortgage delinquencies, foreclosures
23:30 US Philadelphia fed
China FDI also expected
Events.09:45 US Feds's William's speaks at a conference on the economy
15:00 EU's Rompuy meets polish PM
20:30 Trokia speak in parliament
Bonds.11:35 Japan 3month and 20 year auction
18:00 France 2,3,5,15 year auction
Earnings.Walmart(US), Viacom(US), TransDigm(US), Target(US), Ahold(NL), Zurich Ins(VX), Merck(GE), Lenzing(GE), NH Hotels(SP), SJM Hldg(HK), OTP Bank(HU), AAC(HK)
Stoddart
Sentiment remains weak as Obama highlights being tough on the budget. Headlines point to increased revenue, as opposed to spending cuts, leaving investors fearful of higher taxes and the associated impact on growth in the medium term.
Despite the sell off in equities, the Euro not only remained above 1.27, but firmed throughout yesterday, hitting highs of 1.2778 before easing slightly back to 1.2736 currently.
Bond markets saw Spanish yields increase, with the 10 year at 5.90, up 10 basis points on the day, whilst the Italian 10 year looks set to test the 5% level once more, currently trading 4.95, up 6bps.
After such a strong run on Tuesday, with markets closing at day highs, European equity markets had already looked set to give back some of the gains. Opening relatively flat, indices traded mostly sideways until the US market open weaker, pushing Europe lower and closing at day lows.
FTSE -1.1% good volume; O/P: utilities, tech U/P: basic materials, oil&gas
CAC -0.9% avg volume; O/P: cons.services, tech U/P: industrials, oil&gas
DAX -0.9% avg volume; O/P: tech, cons.services U/P: utilities, industrials
IBEX -0.3% v.good volume; O/P: tech, utilities U/P: basic materials, industrials
Across all indices, growth remained a dirty word, with defensive outperforming. Despite the US$ weakening and crude oil firming to 86.24, oil related stocks were the biggest under-performers last night however, both BP and Shell went ex-dividend.
UK jobless claims increased by 10k, vs expected flat, whilst earnings increased 1.8% inline with expectations. Eurozone industrial production fell -2.5% vs expected -2.0%, with the biggest drops coming in Portugal, Greece and Ireland. Things didnt look much better in German and France, both dropping -2.1% and -2.7% respectfully. The drop was caused mostly by a large fall in durable goods, but all suffered a considerable fall.
In the US, of the 500 stocks in the S&P, only 39 were up on the day, 459 down.
S&P -1.4% good volume; O/P: telco, tech U/P: industrials, financial
The sector map, similar to Europe, shows defensive sectors again outperforming. Profit taking in the US financials is not surprising given 1. investors reducing risk, and 2. the strength over the last 5 months. There also appeared to be a number of short covers going through, with names like Facebook(FB US), finally moving higher... this has more to go.
Data overnight saw a strong MBA mortgage app number, up 12.6%. US producer price index came in weaker than expected at -0.2% vs estimates +0.2%. Retail sales also easier at flat vs expected +0.2%
Then we had the FOMC minutes. Highlights there include using inflation and unemployment as a guide for policy, rather than using a time based method. There are arguments for both but normally, the market would prefer a time line where adjustments are known and expected, therefore priced in.
In typical fashion, central bankers are more interested in popularity, spending more time adjusting policy to boost employment, rather than improving the business environment, which would inturn, increase employment.
Markets.Equity markets once again are coming under some rather heavy selling pressure. Sony is issuing a CB and increase cap ex, which today has seen its stock down 10% @ 780. Consumer electronics all suffering from weak demand in Europe but also hit by the firmer JPY. This sector is really starting to look cheap and at these levels, I would be tempted to pick up stock. Fundamentalist's hate it on outlook, but with the JPY weakening we should see margin improve.
Other names I would be looking to accumulate today include Angang(347), Petrochina(857), Sinopec Shanghai(338), Yanzhou(1171). China's new leaders will look to support domestic demand and will look to ease the public concerns on slowing growth.
Equity markets will sell down in the first half, hitting day lows midway through the morning session, before trending sides in the afternoon. I think there is too much macro overhang to encourage any buying interest, however, a possible bounce on short covering is not out of the question.
Data.13:00 Singapore retail sales
14:30 France GDP
15:00 German GDP
16:00 Spain GDP
16:00 Turkey current a/c, unemployment
16:30 Netherlands GDP
17:00 Italy GDP
17:00 ECB monthly report
17:30 UK retail sales
18:00 EU Eurozone CPI, GDP
18:00 Italy current a/c
21:30 US CPI, Empire manufacturing, initial jobless claims
22:45 US mortgage delinquencies, foreclosures
23:30 US Philadelphia fed
China FDI also expected
Events.09:45 US Feds's William's speaks at a conference on the economy
15:00 EU's Rompuy meets polish PM
20:30 Trokia speak in parliament
Bonds.11:35 Japan 3month and 20 year auction
18:00 France 2,3,5,15 year auction
Earnings.Walmart(US), Viacom(US), TransDigm(US), Target(US), Ahold(NL), Zurich Ins(VX), Merck(GE), Lenzing(GE), NH Hotels(SP), SJM Hldg(HK), OTP Bank(HU), AAC(HK)
Stoddart
Tuesday, 13 November 2012
Morning note, data, events, bonds and earnings 14th November 2012
Good morning,
Equity markets mixed overnight. Strong volumes and rebounds in Europe were overshadowed by a weaker US market.
As Greece avoids default, equity markets receive a boost whilst bond yields in Spain and Italy hold current levels. CDS's in Europe over the last 20 days have been creeping higher into the Greek budget announcement, which took place on Monday. Since then, investors had expected bonds to firm as CDS's eased back to mid September levels, however, we are yet to see this.
Strongest performers overnight were Spain's IBEX and Italy's FTSE MIB, both up around 1.5% on strong volume, despite the Euro remaining unchanged at 1.27.
FTSE +0.3% v.good volume; O/P: financial, cons.goods U/P: telco, utilities
CAC +0.6% avg volume; O/P: financial, tech U/P: utilities, telco
DAX flat v.good volume; O/P: financial, cons.services U/P: utilities, cons.goods
IBEX +1.7% avg volume; O/P: financial, telco U/P: basic materials, tech
Sectors clearly pointing to a more positive stance. Financial's continue to run due to optimism on growth. With the banking union due in Jan 2013, and the date again confirmed by Italy's Monti, the market is expecting 1. credit markets to start improving, 2. banks will now be protected by Trokia, who are looking to encourage lending.
Earnings from Vodafone yesterday saw a GBP 6bn writedown on Italy and Spain, weighting down on the FTSE as the stock sold down 2.5%, despite a huge buyback program. This didnt stop a strong rebound in Telefonica, boosting Spain's IBEX.
Data in Europe saw the UK RPI come in slightly higher at 0.6% vs expected 0.2% MoM, raising possible fears on inflation. Bloomberg headlines highlight a strong UK property market as overseas buyers continue to purchase high end homes.
Germany's Zew survey saw economic sentiment come in at -15.7 vs expected -10.0, whilst current situation was 5.4 vs expected 8.0.
In the US, equity markets opened in negative territory and sharply rose to the positive, where we saw them range for most of the session. Only in the last hour did we see them sell back down, with the S&P ending the day just 3 points off day low.
S&P -0.4% avg volume; O/P: utilities, cons.services U/P: tech, financial
The sector map shows a polar opposite to Europe. The recent run in financials continues to see outflows, as does technology, which is one of the top performing sectors this year. Heavy selling in Microsoft and Intel hitting the sector hard, whilst defensive names like Home Depot outperforming after strong earnings.
Data in the US, we had small business optimism which came in at 93.1, vs expected 93.0
Markets.Given the news coming out of Europe, I mentioned over the last 2 weeks, I would be looking to go long Euro. In addition to this, basic material names are trading at some rather attractive levels, and with the creation of the banking union in January, we should growth estimates increased in medium term.
Equity markets in Asia have come under some pressure of late, this should see us trend firmer today, opening at the lows and getting to day highs in first session. With currencies remaining steady, I suspect we flatten off in the second session, with indices trading in a tight range.
Stock picks to own today, Yangzhou Coal(1171), Natl Australia Bank(NAB AU), Petrochina(857), Angang Steel(347 HK).
Data.08:30 Australia wage cost
14:30 India monthly wholesale prices
15:45 French CPI
16:30 Netherlands retail sales
17:30 UK jobless claims, earnings
18:00 Eurozone industrial production
18:30 UK BoE inflation report
20:00 US MBA mortgage apps
21:30 US PPI, retail sales
23:00 US business inventories (big number)
03:00 US FOMC minutes
China FDI
Events.15:30 EU budget framework
18:00 Bank of Italy public finance supplement
20:45 EU regional aid recipients hold meeting
22:30 Greek finance minister meets EU lawmakers
22:45 Italy's Monti meets UK's Cameron
Bonds.11:00 Thailand 1,3 and 6month auction
11:45 Japan 5 year auction
17:00 Netherlands 10 year auction
18:00 Greece 1,3 year auction
00:30 US 3,6 month auction
Earnings.
Staples(US), Abercrombie & Fitch(US), Williams-sonoma(US), NetApp(US), Spectrum Brands(US), RWE(GE), Infineon(GE), J Sainsbury(UK), Solarworld(GE), Natixis(VX), CSR(HK), OLAM(SP), Global logistic(SP), Vtech(HK), City dev(SP), China pharm(HK), CIMB(MK), Jollibee(PH), San Miguel(PM), Citic SEc(CH), PTT(TH), MOL(HU), Turkiye IS Bank(TR), Dogan Yayin(TR), Bank BPH(PW), Echo Inv(PW)
Stoddart
Equity markets mixed overnight. Strong volumes and rebounds in Europe were overshadowed by a weaker US market.
As Greece avoids default, equity markets receive a boost whilst bond yields in Spain and Italy hold current levels. CDS's in Europe over the last 20 days have been creeping higher into the Greek budget announcement, which took place on Monday. Since then, investors had expected bonds to firm as CDS's eased back to mid September levels, however, we are yet to see this.
Strongest performers overnight were Spain's IBEX and Italy's FTSE MIB, both up around 1.5% on strong volume, despite the Euro remaining unchanged at 1.27.
FTSE +0.3% v.good volume; O/P: financial, cons.goods U/P: telco, utilities
CAC +0.6% avg volume; O/P: financial, tech U/P: utilities, telco
DAX flat v.good volume; O/P: financial, cons.services U/P: utilities, cons.goods
IBEX +1.7% avg volume; O/P: financial, telco U/P: basic materials, tech
Sectors clearly pointing to a more positive stance. Financial's continue to run due to optimism on growth. With the banking union due in Jan 2013, and the date again confirmed by Italy's Monti, the market is expecting 1. credit markets to start improving, 2. banks will now be protected by Trokia, who are looking to encourage lending.
Earnings from Vodafone yesterday saw a GBP 6bn writedown on Italy and Spain, weighting down on the FTSE as the stock sold down 2.5%, despite a huge buyback program. This didnt stop a strong rebound in Telefonica, boosting Spain's IBEX.
Data in Europe saw the UK RPI come in slightly higher at 0.6% vs expected 0.2% MoM, raising possible fears on inflation. Bloomberg headlines highlight a strong UK property market as overseas buyers continue to purchase high end homes.
Germany's Zew survey saw economic sentiment come in at -15.7 vs expected -10.0, whilst current situation was 5.4 vs expected 8.0.
In the US, equity markets opened in negative territory and sharply rose to the positive, where we saw them range for most of the session. Only in the last hour did we see them sell back down, with the S&P ending the day just 3 points off day low.
S&P -0.4% avg volume; O/P: utilities, cons.services U/P: tech, financial
The sector map shows a polar opposite to Europe. The recent run in financials continues to see outflows, as does technology, which is one of the top performing sectors this year. Heavy selling in Microsoft and Intel hitting the sector hard, whilst defensive names like Home Depot outperforming after strong earnings.
Data in the US, we had small business optimism which came in at 93.1, vs expected 93.0
Markets.Given the news coming out of Europe, I mentioned over the last 2 weeks, I would be looking to go long Euro. In addition to this, basic material names are trading at some rather attractive levels, and with the creation of the banking union in January, we should growth estimates increased in medium term.
Equity markets in Asia have come under some pressure of late, this should see us trend firmer today, opening at the lows and getting to day highs in first session. With currencies remaining steady, I suspect we flatten off in the second session, with indices trading in a tight range.
Stock picks to own today, Yangzhou Coal(1171), Natl Australia Bank(NAB AU), Petrochina(857), Angang Steel(347 HK).
Data.08:30 Australia wage cost
14:30 India monthly wholesale prices
15:45 French CPI
16:30 Netherlands retail sales
17:30 UK jobless claims, earnings
18:00 Eurozone industrial production
18:30 UK BoE inflation report
20:00 US MBA mortgage apps
21:30 US PPI, retail sales
23:00 US business inventories (big number)
03:00 US FOMC minutes
China FDI
Events.15:30 EU budget framework
18:00 Bank of Italy public finance supplement
20:45 EU regional aid recipients hold meeting
22:30 Greek finance minister meets EU lawmakers
22:45 Italy's Monti meets UK's Cameron
Bonds.11:00 Thailand 1,3 and 6month auction
11:45 Japan 5 year auction
17:00 Netherlands 10 year auction
18:00 Greece 1,3 year auction
00:30 US 3,6 month auction
Earnings.
Staples(US), Abercrombie & Fitch(US), Williams-sonoma(US), NetApp(US), Spectrum Brands(US), RWE(GE), Infineon(GE), J Sainsbury(UK), Solarworld(GE), Natixis(VX), CSR(HK), OLAM(SP), Global logistic(SP), Vtech(HK), City dev(SP), China pharm(HK), CIMB(MK), Jollibee(PH), San Miguel(PM), Citic SEc(CH), PTT(TH), MOL(HU), Turkiye IS Bank(TR), Dogan Yayin(TR), Bank BPH(PW), Echo Inv(PW)
Stoddart
Monday, 12 November 2012
Morning note, data, events, bonds and earnings 13th November 2012
Good morning,
The phrase "fiscal cliff" I hate with a passion. Created by the likes of Mickey Mouse market commentators to add drama to the everyday lives of you and I.
The reason I mention this is, whilst sitting at the bus station last night, I was pondering the predicament in the US. With the tax cuts due to come to an end, Obama will now have to consider how the sudden cancellation of these policies will impact.
Lets look at the aims of the taxes. They were designed for one reason, increase consumer purchasing power. Whether this is to increase consumer spending, or ease the burden of higher mortgage payments, it was aimed to help support individuals during this period of tight credit and low growth.
As mentioned before, despite flooding the system with capital, banks remain reluctant to lend, causing tighter credit markets. This then has a knock-on effect on everything from car loans, home loans, all the way down to credit card limits.
And this is the real question, how do will encourage consumer spending that includes supporting/boosting the housing market?
Ans:
1. Increasing individuals spending power, outside of the bank infrastructure.
2. Encourage banks to increase lending, and associated securities.
Dealing with No.1 first. According to the University of Wisconsin, spending looks like this, as a total of American house hold spending:
Age 21: 9.5%
Age 30: 21.7%
Age 40: 27.4%
Age 49: 25.1%
Age 59: 16.2%
Age 75: 10.0%
By adjusting rules on inheritance tax, the government could encourage the transfer of capital from a lower spending group, to a hire one without impacting near term tax payments.
Currently, the US tax system for estate tax, allows the annual transfer(or "gift") payment of US$13,000 per person per year, caped at US$1m over a lifetime. By relaxing the laws for annual gifts, flows should increase to the lower age brackets, which currently represent 30% of the total annual expenditure in the US.
This should also help support housing markets, where even at correct rates, first time homebuyers are struggling to raise the large deposits needed to own property.
This brings us onto No.2; Banks will now feel more comfortable lending due to lower risk of default. With increased lending by the banks, we should see competition within the mortgage space push "real interest rates" lower, whilst encouraging an increase in mortgage securitisation. Despite the hatred of these products, with set guidelines and credit agencies correctly rating the risks, we should see mortgage markets improve.
This would of course need to pass the republicans, which given the general publics sentiment towards banks will be tough to pass, but given Romney's attempt as easing higher rate tax payers liabilities we should see support of a policy that reduces inheritance tax.
Covering the future inheritance tax revenue. Well, this could be balanced in a number of ways. In places such as the UK, investment taxes have been added on second properties or tax exempt savings plans have been scaled back. Given the inflows of capital into the market, an increase in capital gains tax could be an option, however, the expectations of revenue could be missed should markets remain weak over the next 3 years.
This is not the only option, but it certainly would solve a number of short/medium term issues. America will not be forced to endure a sudden stop of tax cuts, which would make data extremely hard to read and policy adjustments thereafter. I suspect there will be some near term extensions but at reduce rates, hopefully increasing sentiment once more.
Overnight, markets saw some considerable volume drops. US down around 28% and Europe of an average of 15%, this is bucking the idea that volumes would improve after the US election.
The overhang of macro news in both regions, and the new China premier is leaving many investors on the sidelines.
FTSE flat avg volume; O/P: financial, cons.services U/P: basic mats, health
CAC -0.4% low volume; O/P: financial, health U/P: tech, industrial
DAC +0.1% avg volume; O/P: cons.services, health U/P: industrial, tech
IBEX -0.9% v.low volume; O/P: basic mat, utils U/P: industrial, cons.services
With the Euro breaking below 1.27, European CDS's firming and bond yields indicating outflows, equity markets are once again going defensive. The strength overnight in financial's feels more like a technical bounce after banks like HSBC are off around 3% from last weeks highs.
In the US, its much the same story. Firming US$ sees defensives outperform.
S&P flat v.low volume; O/P: financial, cons.services U/P: basic mats, health
Sector maps highlight demand for safety. It seems we cant catch a break as eyes that followed the US presidential election are now all focused on the tax cuts expiry. We need to see more clarity from leaders going into these events if they wish to stabilise markets domestically and globally.
Markets.We will see continued fears over the European and US marco environment. Yesterdays late rally came quickly to an end, leaving me looking for markets to ease on the open, before finding some support, then trading sideways in a tight range.
This is an opportunity to pick up some of the better basic material names. Oil and copper would be the top picks and I will be watching cements closely.
The Euro is also getting to levels were I would accumulate, both against the US$ and the JPY.
Data.09:00 Philippines exports
12:30 Japan industrial production
15:45 France current a/c, non farm payrolls
16:00 Spain CPI
17:00 Italian CPI
17:30 UK PPI, CPI
17:30 Italian government debt
18:00 German ZEW survey
20:30 US small business optimism
03:00 US monthly budget statement
Events.Monti meets French prime minister
15:30 EU budget framework
20:45 EU regional-aid recipients hold meeting in Brussels
22:30 Greek finance minister speaks to lawmakers
22:45 Italy's Monti meets UK's Cameron
Bonds.11:00 Thailand 1,3 and 6 month auction, 3year auction
11:45 Japan 5year auction
17:00 Netherlands 10year auction
18:00 Italian 1year auction
18:00 Greece 1 and 3 month auction
00:30 US 3, 6 month auction
Earnings.Home depot(US), Pirelli(IT), K&S(GE), E.ON(GE), Vodafone(UK), Mediaset(IT), Vivendi(FP), Acciona(FP), Banco Espirito Santo(SP), Unicredit(IT), Intesa Sanpaolo(IT), Enel(IT), Salvatore Ferragamo(IT), Banco Popolare(SP), Man Wah(HK), Bumi resources(IJ), Bank Pekao(PW), Impel(PW)
Stoddart
The phrase "fiscal cliff" I hate with a passion. Created by the likes of Mickey Mouse market commentators to add drama to the everyday lives of you and I.
The reason I mention this is, whilst sitting at the bus station last night, I was pondering the predicament in the US. With the tax cuts due to come to an end, Obama will now have to consider how the sudden cancellation of these policies will impact.
Lets look at the aims of the taxes. They were designed for one reason, increase consumer purchasing power. Whether this is to increase consumer spending, or ease the burden of higher mortgage payments, it was aimed to help support individuals during this period of tight credit and low growth.
As mentioned before, despite flooding the system with capital, banks remain reluctant to lend, causing tighter credit markets. This then has a knock-on effect on everything from car loans, home loans, all the way down to credit card limits.
And this is the real question, how do will encourage consumer spending that includes supporting/boosting the housing market?
Ans:
1. Increasing individuals spending power, outside of the bank infrastructure.
2. Encourage banks to increase lending, and associated securities.
Dealing with No.1 first. According to the University of Wisconsin, spending looks like this, as a total of American house hold spending:
Age 21: 9.5%
Age 30: 21.7%
Age 40: 27.4%
Age 49: 25.1%
Age 59: 16.2%
Age 75: 10.0%
By adjusting rules on inheritance tax, the government could encourage the transfer of capital from a lower spending group, to a hire one without impacting near term tax payments.
Currently, the US tax system for estate tax, allows the annual transfer(or "gift") payment of US$13,000 per person per year, caped at US$1m over a lifetime. By relaxing the laws for annual gifts, flows should increase to the lower age brackets, which currently represent 30% of the total annual expenditure in the US.
This should also help support housing markets, where even at correct rates, first time homebuyers are struggling to raise the large deposits needed to own property.
This brings us onto No.2; Banks will now feel more comfortable lending due to lower risk of default. With increased lending by the banks, we should see competition within the mortgage space push "real interest rates" lower, whilst encouraging an increase in mortgage securitisation. Despite the hatred of these products, with set guidelines and credit agencies correctly rating the risks, we should see mortgage markets improve.
This would of course need to pass the republicans, which given the general publics sentiment towards banks will be tough to pass, but given Romney's attempt as easing higher rate tax payers liabilities we should see support of a policy that reduces inheritance tax.
Covering the future inheritance tax revenue. Well, this could be balanced in a number of ways. In places such as the UK, investment taxes have been added on second properties or tax exempt savings plans have been scaled back. Given the inflows of capital into the market, an increase in capital gains tax could be an option, however, the expectations of revenue could be missed should markets remain weak over the next 3 years.
This is not the only option, but it certainly would solve a number of short/medium term issues. America will not be forced to endure a sudden stop of tax cuts, which would make data extremely hard to read and policy adjustments thereafter. I suspect there will be some near term extensions but at reduce rates, hopefully increasing sentiment once more.
Overnight, markets saw some considerable volume drops. US down around 28% and Europe of an average of 15%, this is bucking the idea that volumes would improve after the US election.
The overhang of macro news in both regions, and the new China premier is leaving many investors on the sidelines.
FTSE flat avg volume; O/P: financial, cons.services U/P: basic mats, health
CAC -0.4% low volume; O/P: financial, health U/P: tech, industrial
DAC +0.1% avg volume; O/P: cons.services, health U/P: industrial, tech
IBEX -0.9% v.low volume; O/P: basic mat, utils U/P: industrial, cons.services
With the Euro breaking below 1.27, European CDS's firming and bond yields indicating outflows, equity markets are once again going defensive. The strength overnight in financial's feels more like a technical bounce after banks like HSBC are off around 3% from last weeks highs.
In the US, its much the same story. Firming US$ sees defensives outperform.
S&P flat v.low volume; O/P: financial, cons.services U/P: basic mats, health
Sector maps highlight demand for safety. It seems we cant catch a break as eyes that followed the US presidential election are now all focused on the tax cuts expiry. We need to see more clarity from leaders going into these events if they wish to stabilise markets domestically and globally.
Markets.We will see continued fears over the European and US marco environment. Yesterdays late rally came quickly to an end, leaving me looking for markets to ease on the open, before finding some support, then trading sideways in a tight range.
This is an opportunity to pick up some of the better basic material names. Oil and copper would be the top picks and I will be watching cements closely.
The Euro is also getting to levels were I would accumulate, both against the US$ and the JPY.
Data.09:00 Philippines exports
12:30 Japan industrial production
15:45 France current a/c, non farm payrolls
16:00 Spain CPI
17:00 Italian CPI
17:30 UK PPI, CPI
17:30 Italian government debt
18:00 German ZEW survey
20:30 US small business optimism
03:00 US monthly budget statement
Events.Monti meets French prime minister
15:30 EU budget framework
20:45 EU regional-aid recipients hold meeting in Brussels
22:30 Greek finance minister speaks to lawmakers
22:45 Italy's Monti meets UK's Cameron
Bonds.11:00 Thailand 1,3 and 6 month auction, 3year auction
11:45 Japan 5year auction
17:00 Netherlands 10year auction
18:00 Italian 1year auction
18:00 Greece 1 and 3 month auction
00:30 US 3, 6 month auction
Earnings.Home depot(US), Pirelli(IT), K&S(GE), E.ON(GE), Vodafone(UK), Mediaset(IT), Vivendi(FP), Acciona(FP), Banco Espirito Santo(SP), Unicredit(IT), Intesa Sanpaolo(IT), Enel(IT), Salvatore Ferragamo(IT), Banco Popolare(SP), Man Wah(HK), Bumi resources(IJ), Bank Pekao(PW), Impel(PW)
Stoddart
Sunday, 11 November 2012
Morning note, data, events, bonds and earnings 12th November 2012
Good morning,
With the Greek budget due now, protests in Athens saw about 15,000 marchers join to voice concerns on austerity measures, which are expected to to be around 9.4b Euro's in cuts.
The coalition government control 169 seats out of a total 300, meaning the bill is expected to be pushed through, however, given the slim margins and pressure from the general public, it might not be that simple. Without the budget being approved, Greece wont receive the next tranche of bailout at 31.5b Euro from the EU, ECB and IMF.
Greece is currently between a rock and a hard place, leaving it little option but to get the budget passed. The alternative is default, and making it unable to raise capital in the foreseeable future. The passing of this bill, should see equity markets firm, as Greece will now have a plan and set targets to help them get out of current levels of debt.
The new budget should also help speed up privatisation, adding to the effort of reducing the countries debt. The Greek government have been putting this off in an attempt to keep popularity in an already fragile government and public opinion.
With the Greek's plan due to be in place (hopefully) this week, investors will now look to other struggling countries such as Italy and Spain. Rising borrow costs at the start of 2012 saw both countries struggle, as they tried to roll debt whilst budget cuts were implemented. With the approval of the EFSF, and therefore a "lender of last resort", CDS's across Europe fell to year lows. With this sell off, borrow rates in Europe also fell, leaving Spain now able to roll debt a more attractive and manageable rates.
With rates now lower, Spain once again is dragging its feet. Rajoy, desperate to hold onto power, is struggling with popularity. With a bailout comes the terms. Budget cuts and sale of state assets have caused ever increasing protests in Madrid, and now other states. With unemployment at 25%, Rajoy is extremely nervous that these cuts will see him lose popularity, and due to this, is now questioning taking funds from the EFSF. This has seen the CDS's start to firm, from 290 basis points to 377 basis points. Once again, concerns rise.
Markets.With all eyes on Europe, equity markets look set to take a more defensive tone. Volumes have been extremely strong after the US election, but these look set to ease after such a dramatic reaction.
With the passing of the Greek budget, and therefore a plan that looks set to reduce its debt, the growth outlook should improve. For here, we should see the Euro continue to firm, helping support and in some cases, boost commodity prices. The JPY should also weaken as the EURYEN finds support around Y100. The government also has highlight increasing growth, so expect to see policy that supports strong exports.
Equity indices should open slightly firmer, trending sideways in the early part of the session, before trending firmer into the close.
Data.08:30 Australia home loans, investment lending
13:30 India industrial production, CPI
15:00 Germany wholesale price index
16:00 Spain house transactions
China money supply
Events.10:30 Japan BoJ governor speaks
17:00 Spain budget minister speaks
21:00 Italy debt agency head speaks in Rome
22:00 EU's hedegaard speaks at EU parliment hearing
Merkel visits Portugal
Bonds.10:30 S.Korea 5 year auction
11:00 Thai 6 month auction
13:30 Philippines 3, 6, 12 month auction
17:00 Indonesia 3, 12 month. 5.5, 15.5 and 20.5 year auction
17:30 India 3, 12 month auction
18:30 German 6 month auction
22:00 France 3, 6 and 12 month auction
Earnings.Beazer homes(US), Northern Tier Energy(US), SAS(SS), ACS(SP), Davide Campari-Milano(IT), Pirellia(FP), Banca Popolare di Milano(IT), JGC Corp(JP), Olympus(JP), Orica(AU), Incitec Pivot(AU), Genting Singapore(SP), Hyundai Merchant(KR), SK holdings(KR), KT Corp(KR), AU ops(TW), Nestle India(IN), Rusal(RU), Rostelcom(RU), KGHM Polska Miedz(PW)
Stoddart
With the Greek budget due now, protests in Athens saw about 15,000 marchers join to voice concerns on austerity measures, which are expected to to be around 9.4b Euro's in cuts.
The coalition government control 169 seats out of a total 300, meaning the bill is expected to be pushed through, however, given the slim margins and pressure from the general public, it might not be that simple. Without the budget being approved, Greece wont receive the next tranche of bailout at 31.5b Euro from the EU, ECB and IMF.
Greece is currently between a rock and a hard place, leaving it little option but to get the budget passed. The alternative is default, and making it unable to raise capital in the foreseeable future. The passing of this bill, should see equity markets firm, as Greece will now have a plan and set targets to help them get out of current levels of debt.
The new budget should also help speed up privatisation, adding to the effort of reducing the countries debt. The Greek government have been putting this off in an attempt to keep popularity in an already fragile government and public opinion.
With the Greek's plan due to be in place (hopefully) this week, investors will now look to other struggling countries such as Italy and Spain. Rising borrow costs at the start of 2012 saw both countries struggle, as they tried to roll debt whilst budget cuts were implemented. With the approval of the EFSF, and therefore a "lender of last resort", CDS's across Europe fell to year lows. With this sell off, borrow rates in Europe also fell, leaving Spain now able to roll debt a more attractive and manageable rates.
With rates now lower, Spain once again is dragging its feet. Rajoy, desperate to hold onto power, is struggling with popularity. With a bailout comes the terms. Budget cuts and sale of state assets have caused ever increasing protests in Madrid, and now other states. With unemployment at 25%, Rajoy is extremely nervous that these cuts will see him lose popularity, and due to this, is now questioning taking funds from the EFSF. This has seen the CDS's start to firm, from 290 basis points to 377 basis points. Once again, concerns rise.
Markets.With all eyes on Europe, equity markets look set to take a more defensive tone. Volumes have been extremely strong after the US election, but these look set to ease after such a dramatic reaction.
With the passing of the Greek budget, and therefore a plan that looks set to reduce its debt, the growth outlook should improve. For here, we should see the Euro continue to firm, helping support and in some cases, boost commodity prices. The JPY should also weaken as the EURYEN finds support around Y100. The government also has highlight increasing growth, so expect to see policy that supports strong exports.
Equity indices should open slightly firmer, trending sideways in the early part of the session, before trending firmer into the close.
Data.08:30 Australia home loans, investment lending
13:30 India industrial production, CPI
15:00 Germany wholesale price index
16:00 Spain house transactions
China money supply
Events.10:30 Japan BoJ governor speaks
17:00 Spain budget minister speaks
21:00 Italy debt agency head speaks in Rome
22:00 EU's hedegaard speaks at EU parliment hearing
Merkel visits Portugal
Bonds.10:30 S.Korea 5 year auction
11:00 Thai 6 month auction
13:30 Philippines 3, 6, 12 month auction
17:00 Indonesia 3, 12 month. 5.5, 15.5 and 20.5 year auction
17:30 India 3, 12 month auction
18:30 German 6 month auction
22:00 France 3, 6 and 12 month auction
Earnings.Beazer homes(US), Northern Tier Energy(US), SAS(SS), ACS(SP), Davide Campari-Milano(IT), Pirellia(FP), Banca Popolare di Milano(IT), JGC Corp(JP), Olympus(JP), Orica(AU), Incitec Pivot(AU), Genting Singapore(SP), Hyundai Merchant(KR), SK holdings(KR), KT Corp(KR), AU ops(TW), Nestle India(IN), Rusal(RU), Rostelcom(RU), KGHM Polska Miedz(PW)
Stoddart
Wednesday, 7 November 2012
Morning note, data, events, bonds and earnings 8th November 2012
Good morning,
Welcome to your second term President Obama - markets sell off.
Lets start by looking at Europe. After the US election, markets opened relatively strong, trending slightly firmer during the first half. With the open of the US markets, came some heavy selling pressure. Headlines attribute this to budget talks and getting it passed the republican controlled house.
Investors are reminded of the problems faced with the banking bailout, and the trouble they had to pass a bill supporting its finance industry.
FTSE -1.6% good volume; O/P: tech, com.goods U/P: basic mat, financial
CAC -2.0% v.good volume; O/P: financial, cons.goods U/P: health, tech
DAX -2.0% v.good volume; O/P: cons.goods, telco U/P: utilities, financial
IBEX -2.3% good volume; O/P: industrial, tech U/P: financial, oil&gas
From the sector data, it would indicate some repositioning as investors reduce beta. The strong rally in US treasuries last night was the 10year firm 10bps to 1.65%, as the market again starts looking at yield, on lower growth expectations.
Data overnight saw Spain industrial output fell 7.0%, vs expected -3.5%. Eurozone retail sales came in slightly easier at -0.2% MoM vs expected -0.1%
In the US, markets opened at the highs and sold off in the first 2 hours, before finding its level and trending sideways. We did see a pick up in selling pressure in the last 30 minutes, causing the S&P to close at day lows.
S&P -2.4% good volume; O/P: cons.services, cons.goods U/P: financial, oil&gas
Sectors tell the story perfectly. Defensive. Profit taking in the financial, tech and telecom sectors puts them as the worst performing on the day. Given the aggression of the sell off, I would be looking at these sectors to pick up as the pressure looks climatic.
Data saw weekly mortgage applications -5.0%, which given we were going into an election, this number should be discounted to a certain extent.
Markets.
Expect an aggressive early sell off. I suspect the day lows are due in the first hour, where we should see support and trend firmer throughout the day.
I'm looking to buy HK/China oil names on the crude sell off. Consumer electronics should see a bounce after some heavy selling.
Risk off today should see profit taking in banks, railway and shipping.
Data.
08:30 Australia employment
11:00 S.Korea money supply
12:30 Japan bankruptcies
15:00 German trade balance, import/export
15:45 France trade balance
16:00 Turkey industrial production
16:30 Netherlands CPI, industrial production
20:00 UK Bank of England rates
20:45 ECB deposit facility, interest rates
21:30 US trade balance, jobless claims
Greek unemployment, could be a high impact number today, given the budget.
Events.
23:15 Germany's Merkel addresses EU parliment
Bonds.
11:00 China 7year auction
11:00 Thailand 9 year auction
11:35 Japan 6 month auction
18:30 German 5 year auction
02:00 US 10 year auction
Earnings.
Westlake(US), Advanced auto parts(US), First energy(US), Firstenergy(US), Duke energy(US), Kohl's(US), Nordstrom(US), Energizer(US), Repsol(SP), Commerzbank(GE), Siemens(GE), Deutsche post(GE), KBC(BB), SG(FP), Adidas(GE), Coca cola helenic(GR), Aegon(NL0, Swisscom(SW), ProSiebenSat(GE), Skanska(SW), Endesa(SP), Deutsche tel(GE), Gamesa(SP), SAS(SW), Tate & Lyle(UK), C&W(UK), Experian(UK), Daiwa house industry(JP), Rohm(JP), Disco(JP), NTT(JP), Shinsei bank(JP), Noble(SG), Parkson(HK), Petra foods(SG), Johnson elec(HK), UoL(SG), S-oil(SK), Lotte shopping(SK), Samsung fire & Marine(SK), AAC Tech(HK), Lenovo(HK), Oil and nat gas(IN), Kingfisher airlines(IN), Ranbaxy ind(IN), reliance comms(IN), Cummins (IN), Netia(PW), Mobile telesystems(RU), TNK-BP(RU), Akbank(TR)
Stoddart
Welcome to your second term President Obama - markets sell off.
Lets start by looking at Europe. After the US election, markets opened relatively strong, trending slightly firmer during the first half. With the open of the US markets, came some heavy selling pressure. Headlines attribute this to budget talks and getting it passed the republican controlled house.
Investors are reminded of the problems faced with the banking bailout, and the trouble they had to pass a bill supporting its finance industry.
FTSE -1.6% good volume; O/P: tech, com.goods U/P: basic mat, financial
CAC -2.0% v.good volume; O/P: financial, cons.goods U/P: health, tech
DAX -2.0% v.good volume; O/P: cons.goods, telco U/P: utilities, financial
IBEX -2.3% good volume; O/P: industrial, tech U/P: financial, oil&gas
From the sector data, it would indicate some repositioning as investors reduce beta. The strong rally in US treasuries last night was the 10year firm 10bps to 1.65%, as the market again starts looking at yield, on lower growth expectations.
Data overnight saw Spain industrial output fell 7.0%, vs expected -3.5%. Eurozone retail sales came in slightly easier at -0.2% MoM vs expected -0.1%
In the US, markets opened at the highs and sold off in the first 2 hours, before finding its level and trending sideways. We did see a pick up in selling pressure in the last 30 minutes, causing the S&P to close at day lows.
S&P -2.4% good volume; O/P: cons.services, cons.goods U/P: financial, oil&gas
Sectors tell the story perfectly. Defensive. Profit taking in the financial, tech and telecom sectors puts them as the worst performing on the day. Given the aggression of the sell off, I would be looking at these sectors to pick up as the pressure looks climatic.
Data saw weekly mortgage applications -5.0%, which given we were going into an election, this number should be discounted to a certain extent.
Markets.
Expect an aggressive early sell off. I suspect the day lows are due in the first hour, where we should see support and trend firmer throughout the day.
I'm looking to buy HK/China oil names on the crude sell off. Consumer electronics should see a bounce after some heavy selling.
Risk off today should see profit taking in banks, railway and shipping.
Data.
08:30 Australia employment
11:00 S.Korea money supply
12:30 Japan bankruptcies
15:00 German trade balance, import/export
15:45 France trade balance
16:00 Turkey industrial production
16:30 Netherlands CPI, industrial production
20:00 UK Bank of England rates
20:45 ECB deposit facility, interest rates
21:30 US trade balance, jobless claims
Greek unemployment, could be a high impact number today, given the budget.
Events.
23:15 Germany's Merkel addresses EU parliment
Bonds.
11:00 China 7year auction
11:00 Thailand 9 year auction
11:35 Japan 6 month auction
18:30 German 5 year auction
02:00 US 10 year auction
Earnings.
Westlake(US), Advanced auto parts(US), First energy(US), Firstenergy(US), Duke energy(US), Kohl's(US), Nordstrom(US), Energizer(US), Repsol(SP), Commerzbank(GE), Siemens(GE), Deutsche post(GE), KBC(BB), SG(FP), Adidas(GE), Coca cola helenic(GR), Aegon(NL0, Swisscom(SW), ProSiebenSat(GE), Skanska(SW), Endesa(SP), Deutsche tel(GE), Gamesa(SP), SAS(SW), Tate & Lyle(UK), C&W(UK), Experian(UK), Daiwa house industry(JP), Rohm(JP), Disco(JP), NTT(JP), Shinsei bank(JP), Noble(SG), Parkson(HK), Petra foods(SG), Johnson elec(HK), UoL(SG), S-oil(SK), Lotte shopping(SK), Samsung fire & Marine(SK), AAC Tech(HK), Lenovo(HK), Oil and nat gas(IN), Kingfisher airlines(IN), Ranbaxy ind(IN), reliance comms(IN), Cummins (IN), Netia(PW), Mobile telesystems(RU), TNK-BP(RU), Akbank(TR)
Stoddart
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